Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got CF Pachuca at home to host Necaxa on 11 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Pachuca are at home, and that's where they do their business. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 10, drawn 4 and lost 6, averaging 1.7 points per game. They score 1.55 a game at home and concede 1.2, which is a solid defensive record. Now, their last two home games have been draws — 2–2 with Club Tijuana (with a 90th-minute red card to boot) and 1–1 with Guadalajara Chivas — so they're not exactly rolling at the moment. But before that, they were winning away games with style: 3–0 at Atlante FC and 2–0 at FC Juarez. The 0–1 loss at Santos Laguna two weeks ago was a blip, not a pattern.
Necaxa, on the other hand, are in a bit of a mess. Their last five games read 0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses. They're on a three-game losing run and have scored just 3 goals while conceding 8 in that stretch. Their last five games show them averaging 0.2 points per game, conceding 2.4 a game. That's not a team in any sort of rhythm. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses — 1 point per game — and they concede 1.95 a game on the road. That's a leaky defence.
Now, the head-to-head here is telling. The most recent meeting, back in March at Pachuca's ground, ended 2–1 to the hosts. And if you look at the five meetings listed, Pachuca won every single one. The older meetings — going back two years — are historical record, but they paint a picture: Pachuca have won 11 of 22 meetings against Necaxa, scoring 1.77 a game and conceding 1.14. That's a team with a history of getting results against this opposition.
The matchup table makes it even clearer. Pachuca at home: 1.7 points per game, 1.55 scored, 1.2 conceded. Necaxa away: 1.0 points per game, 1.4 scored, 1.95 conceded. On the key lines — points per game, goals scored, and goals conceded — Pachuca's home numbers are better than Necaxa's away numbers. The gap in points per game alone — 1.7 to 1.0 — tells you who's the stronger side in this context.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play, is that Pachuca's last two home games were draws and their most recent result was a loss. They're not flying. And Necaxa did manage a 1–1 draw at Tigres UANL five weeks ago, so they're not completely toothless. But that draw came away from home, and since then they've lost three in a row. Pachuca have been competitive at home, drawing both their last two home games against Tijuana and Chivas.
The xG numbers back it up too. Pachuca have been creating 1.48 expected goals per game in their recent xG-covered matches, while Necaxa are managing just 1.0. On the defensive side, Pachuca face 1.96 xG against per game, while Necaxa's defence faces just 1.34. So Pachuca's attack is the edge here, though their defence isn't as tight as Necaxa's.
Key Points:
- Pachuca's home record: 10W 4D 6L in 20 games, 1.7 ppg, 1.55 scored per game
- Necaxa's away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games, 1.0 ppg, 1.95 conceded per game
- Necaxa are on a 3-game losing run (scored 3, conceded 8)
- Pachuca won the recent H2H meeting 2–1 at home and all 5 listed meetings
- Pachuca's last two home games were draws, but their away wins before that were convincing
My own read puts Pachuca's chances above the market's 58.14% figure, and the price of 1.72 is fair for what you're getting. I'm going with the CF Pachuca home win.