Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you – this one's got the smell of a good braai on it. CF Pachuca are at home, and Necaxa are trudging in on the road with a 0-1-4 record in their last five. That's not a team that's coming to your house to eat your boerewors, mate.
Pachuca's home numbers over the last 20 games tell the story: 10 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses, scoring 1.55 a game and conceding just 1.2. That's a solid record, and it's the kind of home base that makes you feel like you've got the advantage before the ball even drops. Add in the head-to-head and it gets even more interesting. Pachuca have won all five of the last meetings against Necaxa. The most recent, on 4 March at this ground, was a 2-1 home win. The other four meetings go back to 2024 and 2025, so they're historical rather than current form, but the pattern is consistent – Pachuca have not lost to this side in five tries.
Now, Pachuca's last five games: two wins, two draws, one loss. They lost 0-1 at Santos Laguna two weeks ago, which stings, but before that they were winning 3-0 and 2-0 on the road. At home they've drawn 2-2 with Tijuana and 1-1 with Chivas, so they're not blowing teams away at home recently, but they're not losing either. The 1.6 goals per game they've scored in that stretch shows the attack is still there, and they've kept clean sheets in two of those five.
Necaxa, on the other hand, are in a real mess. Four losses in five, and they've lost their last three straight – scored 3, conceded 8 in that run. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses, conceding 1.95 a game. That's a team that's leaking goals on the road, and when you're facing a side that scores 1.55 at home, the numbers don't lie. In their last 10 games across all venues, Necaxa have managed just 1 win, 2 draws and 7 losses, conceding 2.1 a game. That's not a side that's going to travel to Pachuca's ground and park the bus.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: Pachuca did lose their last game, and their two recent home draws show they're not always the dominant force at home. A 2-2 and a 1-1 don't scream "winning machine." And Necaxa did manage a 1-1 draw at Tigres five weeks ago, so they're not completely toothless. But one draw against Tigres doesn't change the fact that they've lost four of their last five and are conceding at a rate that's going to hurt against Pachuca's home attack. You can't keep giving up 2.4 goals a game and expect to come back with points.
Key Points:
- CF Pachuca have won all five of the last meetings against Necaxa, including the 2-1 home win on 4 March
- Pachuca's home record: 10W 4D 6L in 20 games, 1.55 scored per game, 1.2 conceded per game
- Necaxa's away record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games, 1.95 conceded per game
- Necaxa have lost their last 3 matches, scoring 3 and conceding 8
- Pachuca's last 5: 2W 2D 1L, 1.6 goals scored per game
My verdict: CF Pachuca home win. The numbers, the form, the head-to-head – it all points the same way. Pachuca at home against a Necaxa side that's lost three in a row and leaks goals on the road? That's a braai I can get behind, and I'd have a cold one in hand watching it.