Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Chapecoense-sc hosting Atletico Paranaense on 12 October, and if I'm being straight with you, the numbers are pointing one way.
Atletico Paranaense have been in a decent rhythm. Over their last 10 games they've picked up 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, scoring 1.9 goals a game and only failing to find the net in one of those ten. Their last five has been 1W 3D 1L, and they've scored in every single one of those five. The only recent meeting between these two — back in April at Atletico Paranaense's ground — ended 2–0 to the hosts, and that's the only meeting within the last 12 months. The older head-to-head stretches back 11 years and is mostly historical record, so I'm leaning on that 2–0 and the current form rather than the dated meetings.
Chapecoense-sc, on the other hand, have been struggling. Their last five is 1W 2D 2L, and the most recent game was a 0–4 thrashing at Vitoria's ground on 7 October, just five days before this one. Before that, they lost 1–2 at home to Internacional on 12 September. They've only managed 2 wins in their last 10, scoring just 1 goal a game and conceding 1.7. That's not the sort of form that makes you feel safe at home, even if the longer home record looks a bit rosier.
Now, the counter-argument: Chapecoense-sc do have a reasonable home record over 20 games — 8 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses, scoring 1.4 a game and keeping 7 clean sheets. That's not nothing. And Atletico Paranaense's away record over 20 games is their weaker one: 6 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses, conceding 1.55 a game. So there's a case that the home crowd could make it a bit trickier than the numbers suggest. But when you stack up the recent form, the scoring output, and that 2–0 home win in April, the edge sits firmly with the visitors.
Key Points:
- Atletico Paranaense: 4W 4D 2L in last 10, scoring 1.9/game, found the net in all 5 recent matches
- Chapecoense-sc: 2W 4D 4L in last 10, lost 0–4 on 7 October, lost 1–2 at home to Internacional on 12 September
- Only recent H2H (April 2026): Atletico Paranaense won 2–0 at home
- Chapecoense-sc home record over 20 games: 8W 6D 6L, 1.4 scored per game
- Both teams' records lean towards over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring
So my pick is the away win for Atletico Paranaense at 2.11. The form, the scoring, and that recent 2–0 all point the same way, and I can't see a strong enough case for the home side to hold out.