Charlton vs Ipswich Prediction

Right, let's get down to brass tacks. It's Charlton versus Ipswich in the Championship, and the numbers tell a pretty clear story.

Charlton are sitting in 19th place with just 50 points from 43 games. Their home form isn't great either. In their last 10 games, they've managed only 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses. At home, they're scoring a measly 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20. That's a tough spot to be in when you're hosting a team like Ipswich. They haven't been keeping many clean sheets, with a 20% rate at home.

Ipswich, on the other hand, are flying high. They're sitting 2nd with 76 points. In their last 10 games, they've racked up 5 wins, 4 draws, and just 1 loss. That's 1.90 points per game. Away from home, they're scoring 1.75 goals per game and keeping a clean sheet 40% of the time. That's a massive difference in quality. They average 14.20 shots per game, compared to Charlton's 10.40.

Looking at the head-to-head record, Ipswich has the edge with 4 wins to Charlton's 3 in 10 meetings. Charlton's home record against Ipswich is 1 win, 2 draws, 1 loss. Ipswich's away record against Charlton is 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses. But recent form is what matters most.

The expected goals suggest Charlton will score 0.93 goals and Ipswich 1.48 goals. That adds up to 2.41 total goals, which is just under the 2.5 line. Charlton had 4 days rest, Ipswich had 3 days rest. Charlton played 2 matches in last 14 days, Ipswich played 3 matches.

The odds for an Ipswich win are 1.75. Given the 26-point gap in the league table and the massive difference in recent form, I see value here. Charlton's home win rate is just 20%, while Ipswich's away win rate is 50%.

So, my tip is for Ipswich to win. The stats back it up, and the odds offer a decent edge.