Charlton vs Portsmouth Prediction

Right then, listen up! We've got a proper relegation scrap down at The Valley on Tuesday night, and if you're after a bit of value in the Championship, pull up a stool and hear this one out.

Charlton are sitting pretty-ish in 18th, six points clear of the drop zone, while Portsmouth are dangling just above the trapdoor in 21st. But it's the form book that's telling the real story here, my friends.

Nathan Jones' lot are on a lovely little unbeaten run - three games without defeat after that 1-0 win against Stoke, a hard-fought 0-0 with QPR, and a cracking 2-0 away day at Leicester. That's seven points from nine, and you can see the confidence growing. The defence is looking solid with four clean sheets in their last ten, and at home they've only conceded 1.33 per game.

Now, look at Pompey. John Mousinho's boys have lost their last two - 1-0 at home to Sheffield United and another 1-0 defeat at Preston on Saturday. That's two games, zero goals, and now they've got to trek up to London with only three days' rest while Charlton have had a full week to prepare. Fatigue is a killer at this level.

The stats don't lie, and they're ugly reading for Portsmouth fans. Away from Fratton Park, they're averaging just 0.50 goals per game. That's half a goal! They've scored in only two of their last four on the road, and their trends are all heading south - goals drying up, points dropping off.

Charlton lost the reverse fixture 2-1 back on December 29th at Portsmouth's place, so there's a bit of revenge in the air too. The Addicks have won four of the last nine against Pompey overall, and at The Valley they've got the edge.

Key Points:

• Charlton unbeaten in last 3: W 1-0 vs Stoke, D 0-0 vs QPR, W 2-0 at Leicester

• Portsmouth lost last 2 without scoring: L 0-1 vs Sheff Utd, L 0-1 at Preston

• Pompey averaging just 0.50 goals per game away from home (woeful record)

• Charlton have 6 days rest vs Portsmouth's 3 days (massive fatigue advantage)

• Charlton showing improving trends in goals scored, conceded, and points

• Portsmouth trends declining in goals and points

The Bet:

The bookies have Charlton at 2.50, which looks a gift to me. With Pompey struggling to find the net on their travels and Charlton's defence tightening up, the Addicks should have enough to take all three points. I'm backing the home win.