Cheltenham vs Barrow Prediction

Right then, Friday night football down in League Two, and we've got Cheltenham hosting Barrow at Whaddon Road. If you're after a scrap at the wrong end of the table, this is your ticket – Cheltenham sitting 18th just trying to keep their heads above water, while Barrow are drowning fast in 23rd, only kept off the bottom by Harrogate's even worse form.

Now, Cheltenham have been showing a bit of bottle lately, haven't they? The Robins are unbeaten in three, and we're not talking about beating the dregs here. They turned over playoff-chasing Salford 3-2 in a proper thriller, then went to league leaders Bromley and came away with a hard-earned 1-1 draw. Even their last outing, a 1-1 stalemate at Harrogate, shows they're not rolling over when the going gets tough. At home, they're averaging 1.6 goals a game – not world-beating, but decent enough for this level.

But let's talk about Barrow, because blimey, they're in a state. Nine defeats in their last ten matches, with their only win in that run a narrow 1-0 against Colchester. Their away form? Don't make me laugh – five straight losses on the bounce, shipping 2.6 goals a game and looking about as solid as a chocolate teapot. They just lost 1-0 to Harrogate (who've been poor themselves) and got turned over 3-2 by a Fleetwood side that haven't exactly been pulling up trees. When you're losing to teams around you, the alarm bells aren't just ringing, they're deafening.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading an' all – seven meetings between these two, and not a single draw! Cheltenham edge it 4-3, and six of those seven games went over 2.5 goals, so we're usually guaranteed a bit of entertainment.

The bookies have Cheltenham at 2.40, which looks a touch generous to me given the form lines. Barrow at 2.80 might tempt the brave, but with their travel sickness and Cheltenham showing real signs of life against quality opposition, I'm siding with the hosts.

Key Points:

• Cheltenham are unbeaten in three (W1 D2), including a cracking 3-2 win vs Salford and a 1-1 draw at league leaders Bromley

• Barrow have lost nine of their last ten matches, with their only win a 1-0 against Colchester

• Barrow's away form is dreadful: five straight defeats, conceding 2.6 goals per game on the road

• Head-to-head history shows no draws in seven meetings – Cheltenham lead 4-3

• Six of the last seven encounters have gone over 2.5 goals

The Verdict:

Barrow are there for the taking, and Cheltenham's recent improvement against good sides suggests they've got the measure of this. At 2.40, the home win represents solid value against a side shipping goals for fun away from home. Get on Cheltenham to take the three points.