Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction

Right, so we've got Chongqing Tongliang Long hosting Shandong Luneng on 11 October, and if I'm being straight with you, this one's got a fairly clear shape to it.

Let's start with the hosts. Chongqing Tongliang Long have been in a bit of a muddle lately. Their last five games? Zero wins. Two draws and three losses, and they've lost their last two on the bounce, scoring just one goal and conceding four in that stretch. Across their last ten in all competitions, they've managed one win, three draws and six losses. At home over 20 games, they've got 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, scoring 1.1 a game and conceding 1. So they're not a team that folds at home, but they're not exactly setting the place on fire either.

Now flip it to Shandong Luneng. Away from home over 20 games, they've won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, scoring 1.9 a game. That's a solid away record. In their last five, they've won two, drawn one and lost two, and in their last ten they've won four, drawn two and lost four. They've scored 7 goals in their last five games. That's a team that's scoring and getting results on the road.

And the head-to-head? Well, it's a bit one-sided. In their one meeting within the last 12 months — back in May at Shandong's ground — Shandong won 3-1. The other meeting, way back in 2024 in a FA Cup tie at Chongqing's end, ended 6-3 to Shandong. So in both meetings, Shandong have won, and both times the scores went over 2.5. That's a dated head-to-head — only one recent meeting — but the direction is clear.

Now, the counter-argument. Chongqing's home record over 20 games isn't a disaster. Seven wins at home means they can be competitive on their own turf, and the head-to-head is thin — just one recent meeting. Also, Shandong lost 0-3 to Shanghai SIPG at home in the FA Cup five weeks ago, and they've had red cards in two of their last five. So they're not perfect, and a winless Chongqing side at home can still be tricky.

But the weight of evidence points one way. Chongqing are winless in five, losing their last two, and their scoring is poor. Shandong are scoring well away, their away record is solid, and they've won both times they've met. The market has Shandong at 2.72 for the win, which implies about 37%. I'd put their chance closer to 52%, which means there's genuine value here.

Key Points:

• Chongqing Tongliang Long are winless in their last five games, losing their last two

• Shandong Luneng have won 9 of their last 20 away games, scoring 1.9 per game

• Shandong won both meetings in this fixture (3-1 in May, 6-3 in 2024)

• Chongqing's home record is 7W 7D 6L in 20 games — competitive but not dominant

• Shandong's last five includes a 3-2 away win over Shanghai Shenhua

So my pick is the away win for Shandong Luneng.