Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction

The numbers don't lie, and in this one they're pointing in one direction. Shandong Luneng walk into Chongqing Tongliang Long's ground carrying 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from their last five, scoring 7 goals along the way. Chongqing? They've won zero of their last five, lost their last two, and managed just 2 goals in that stretch while conceding 6. That's not a team in form — that's a team looking for a way out of the tunnel.

The away record tells the story even more clearly. Over their last 20 away games, Shandong Luneng have won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, averaging 1.55 points per game and 1.9 goals scored per outing. Chongqing's home record over 20 games sits at 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, 1.4 points per game, 1.1 scored. The points-per-game gap is modest, but the scoring gap is the one that matters — 1.9 to 1.1. A team that scores 1.9 goals per game on the road against an opposition that averages 1.1 at home is going to find the breakthrough, and Chongqing's defence has conceded 6 in their last five to make that job easier.

The head-to-head is thin but pointed. The one meeting within the last 12 months, back in May at Shandong's ground, ended 3–1 to the hosts. The older meeting at Chongqing's ground in 2024 was a 3–6 rout. In both cases, both teams found the net and the total went over 2.5. That's only two meetings, and the 2024 game is historical, so I won't hang a pattern on it — but it does confirm that when these two meet, goals tend to flow and Shandong tend to come out on top.

The counter-argument is that Chongqing's home record isn't a disaster. Seven wins in 20 home games, 9 clean sheets, and they've kept the game to under 2.5 goals in 15 of those 20. If you're looking for a low-scoring affair where the home side digs in, there's a thread to pull. But that thread is frayed by the fact that Chongqing have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 10. A team that can't find the net is a team that can't win, no matter how tidy the back line looks. Their last two games — a 1–3 home loss to Shanghai Shenhua and a 0–1 away loss to Yunnan Yukun — underline just how thin the attack has become.

Key Points:

• Shandong Luneng: 2W 1D 2L in last 5, 7 goals scored; Chongqing Tongliang Long: 0W 2D 3L, 2 goals scored

• Shandong's away record: 9W 4D 7L in 20, 1.9 goals per game; Chongqing's home record: 7W 7D 6L, 1.1 goals per game

• Head-to-head: Shandong won both meetings (3–1 in May 2026, 3–6 in 2024), both went over 2.5

• Chongqing have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 and 5 of their last 10

• Chongqing's last two games: 1–3 loss at home to Shanghai Shenhua and 0–1 loss away to Yunnan Yukun

The market prices Shandong at 2.72, implying about 37% chance. My read of the form, the away record and the head-to-head puts the true probability closer to 47%. That's value worth taking. I'm backing the away win.