Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction

Right, folks, The Big O is back and I'm eyeing this one with a bit of a squint. Chongqing Tongliang Long host Shandong Luneng on 11 October in the Super League, and I'm looking for goals, goals, goals. Let's see if the numbers deliver.

The case for an open game starts with Shandong Luneng's away record. Over their last 20 away games, they've won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, scoring 1.9 per game and conceding 1.75. Fourteen of those 20 away fixtures went over 2.5 goals, and 13 of 20 saw both teams find the net. Their recent form backs that up: 3 of their last 5 matches have produced three or more goals, and 6 of their last 10 have done the same. Add in the head-to-head — both meetings between these two sides, one at each ground, have gone over 2.5 and both teams have scored. The most recent meeting in May 2026 was a 3–1 at Shandong's ground, and the older 2024 fixture at Chongqing's ground was a 3–6. That's 2 out of 2 for goals, though I'll be upfront that one of those is historical and the head-to-head is thin on recent evidence.

Now here's where I have to be honest, and where the Big O starts to get a bit nervous. Chongqing Tongliang Long's home record is a goal drought by any measure. Over 20 home games, 15 of them finished under 2.5 goals. In their last 10 matches across all venues, only 2 went over 2.5. Their last 5 matches produced just 8 goals in total — 2 scored, 6 conceded. They've lost their last two, and in those two games they managed a single goal while conceding four. Their home scoring average is 1.1 per game, and they've failed to score in 6 of 20 home fixtures. That's a team that, on the numbers, is not going to light up the scoreboard.

So the tension is this: Shandong's away profile screams goals, but Chongqing's home profile whispers 'keep it tight.' The market prices over 2.5 at 1.73, implying a 57.80% chance. My gut, reading all the Chongqing home data alongside Shandong's away numbers, puts the real probability closer to 52 or 53%. That's below the market's view, and frankly, it's below the level I'd need to feel comfortable laying money on the total. The same logic applies to both teams to score — the market sits at 1.62 (61.73% implied), but Chongqing's recent scoring drought (3 of 5 recent games without a goal) makes me rate the true chance closer to 55%, which doesn't clear the bar for a recommendation.

Key Points:

• Shandong Luneng's last 20 away games: 14 over 2.5, 13 BTTS yes, 1.9 goals scored per game

• Chongqing Tongliang Long's last 20 home games: 15 under 2.5, 6 failed to score, 1.1 goals scored per game

• Both head-to-head meetings went over 2.5 and both teams scored (3–1 in May 2026, 3–6 in June 2024)

• Chongqing have lost their last two matches, scoring just 1 goal in the process

• Shandong's last 5 matches: 3 over 2.5, 3 BTTS yes

The Big O has to pass on this one. The available prices on the over markets don't offer value against what the numbers are telling me, and I'm not about to chase a total that the home side's record says will be a low-scoring affair. Life's too short for nil-nil, but this one might be close to it. No Bet.