Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction

There's something quietly endearing about a team the market has priced just a shade higher than their opponent, yet the numbers tell a story of a side that's been quietly outworking everyone. Shandong Luneng arrive in Chongqing as the slight underdog at 2.72, and that's exactly where I like to find my little puppies.

Let's start with the most telling evidence. Chongqing Tongliang Long have won just one game in their last ten across all venues, and their last five has been a grim 0W 2D 3L. They lost their last two matches — 1–3 to Shanghai Shenhua at home on 6 September and 0–1 to Yunnan Yukun away on 2 September — and in those five games they've scored just 2 goals while conceding 6. Their home record over 20 games is 7W 7D 6L, which isn't terrible, but the current form is telling a very different story.

Shandong Luneng, by contrast, have won 2 of their last 5, including a 3–2 away win over Shanghai Shenhua on 28 August. Their away record over 20 games is 9W 4D 7L with 1.55 points per game, and they've scored 1.9 goals per game on the road. In their last 10 matches across all venues, they've picked up 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses — a far healthier return than Chongqing's 1W 3D 6L.

The head-to-head adds another layer. In the one meeting within the last 12 months, Shandong Luneng won 3–1 at their own ground on 16 May 2026. An older FA Cup meeting at Chongqing's ground in June 2024 also ended in a Shandong victory (6–3), though that's well over a year old. Both games saw over 2.5 goals.

The counter-argument is that Chongqing do have a reasonable home record — 9 clean sheets in 20 home games and 15 of those 20 finished under 2.5 goals. They also failed to score in only 6 of those 20 home matches. And Shandong's defence has been leaky recently, conceding 1.8 per game in their last 5. A draw or a narrow Chongqing win is certainly possible, especially with the home crowd behind them.

But the weight of evidence points firmly to Shandong. They're the better side in form, in away record, in head-to-head, and in scoring output. The market's 36.76% implied probability for an away win feels a touch low given what the numbers show. I'd put Shandong's chance of winning closer to 45%, which is a comfortable margin above the market's view.

Key Points:

• Chongqing Tongliang Long have won just 1 of their last 10 and lost their last 2, scoring only 2 goals in 5 games

• Shandong Luneng's away record is 9W 4D 7L over 20 games, with 1.9 goals scored per game

• Shandong won the recent head-to-head meeting 3–1 at their own ground (May 2026); a 2024 FA Cup meeting at Chongqing's ground also ended in a Shandong win (6–3)

• Chongqing's home games have been low-scoring (15/20 under 2.5), but their current form is poor

• Shandong's last 5 includes 2 wins and a 3-goal away performance against Shanghai Shenhua

I'm backing the away win for Shandong Luneng.