Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Shandong Luneng Prediction

Shandong Luneng arrive at Chongqing Tongliang Long's ground carrying the weight of a fixture that has gone their way in both previous meetings. The most recent encounter, on 16 May 2026 at Shandong's ground, ended 3–1 in Shandong's favour, and the older meeting in June 2024 at Chongqing's ground saw Shandong win 6–3. That head-to-head record is limited — only one meeting falls within the last 12 months — but the pattern is consistent: Chongqing have not beaten Shandong in either game, and both produced three or more goals.

The current form gap is stark. Chongqing Tongliang Long have won just one of their last 10 matches (1W 3D 6L), averaging 0.6 points per game and scoring only 0.7 per game. Their last two outings ended in defeat, with a combined scoreline of 1–4. In their last five matches, they failed to score in three of them and kept under 2.5 goals in four. At home over 20 games, the record is 7W 7D 6L with 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, and they have kept clean sheets in 9 of those 20. But the recent trajectory is downward, and the home numbers over 13 months include older games that dilute the current picture.

Shandong Luneng, by contrast, have won 4 of their last 10 (4W 2D 4L), averaging 1.4 points per game and 1.3 goals scored. Their away record over 20 games is 9W 4D 7L, with 1.9 goals scored per game and 1.75 conceded. In their last five matches they have scored 7 and conceded 9, and they have gone over 2.5 in three of those five. They have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five games, and both teams have scored in three of those five. The red cards observed in two of their last five matches — one in minute 29 against Sichuan Jiuniu and one in minute 89 against Qingdao Youth Island — add a layer of unpredictability to their defensive shape.

The strongest case for Shandong is the combination of their superior recent form, their strong away record, and the head-to-head history. The strongest counter-argument is that Chongqing's home defence over 20 games (1.0 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets) is solid, and their recent matches have been low-scoring. Only one head-to-head meeting is recent, so the historical 6–3 result carries limited weight. Chongqing's home record, while unimpressive, is not poor enough to guarantee a defeat.

Key Points:

• Chongqing Tongliang Long have won only 1 of their last 10 matches and lost their last two, scoring just 1 goal in those games.

• Shandong Luneng have won 4 of their last 10 and hold a 9W 4D 7L away record over 20 games.

• Shandong won both previous meetings against Chongqing (3–1 in May 2026, 6–3 in June 2024).

• Chongqing's home record over 20 games includes 9 clean sheets and 15 under-2.5 results, suggesting a low-scoring profile.

• Shandong have not kept a clean sheet in their last five matches and have gone over 2.5 in three of those five.

After weighing the evidence, the football points toward Shandong Luneng as the stronger side, but the margin is not large enough for a confident recommendation. Chongqing's home defensive record and the limited recent head-to-head sample mean the outcome is far from certain. When the numbers do not give me a clear edge above the level I require, I pass. No bet.