Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Columbus Crew hosting Charlotte on 14 October, and if I'm being honest, the form books are pointing one way.
Charlotte have been absolutely flying. In their last 10 games across all competitions, they've picked up 6 wins, 3 draws and just 1 loss — 2.1 points per game. They're scoring 2.1 a game and only conceding 1.3. Four days before this one they put 3 past FC Dallas at home, and before that they were winning away at DC United and CF Montreal. The expected goals numbers back it up too: Charlotte are generating 1.77 xG per game over their last 7 matches with data, and they've actually scored 18 in those games. That's a side that's creating and converting in spades.
Columbus Crew, on the other hand, have been struggling. Their last 10 games read 4 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses — 1.2 points per game. They're scoring 1.5 a game but conceding 1.6, and their xG for is sitting at 1.22 per game over 4 matches with data. They lost 2-3 at Orlando City just four days before this one, and before that they'd lost 0-1 to New York Red Bulls at home on 12 September. Three wins in five isn't terrible, but the way they've been leaking goals tells you they're not at their best.
Now, the counter-argument, and it's a fair one. Columbus Crew at home are a different proposition. Over 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, averaging 1.8 points per game. They score 1.65 a game at home and concede just 1.1. That's a solid record. Charlotte away, though, are 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses in 20 games — 1.55 points per game, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4. So the home edge for Columbus Crew is real, and it's not nothing.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There's no recent meeting at Columbus Crew's ground within the last 12 months. The one recent meeting was at Charlotte's ground on 15 August, where Charlotte won 3-1. The older meetings go back to 2022 and are historical record, not current form. So we can't really lean on the H2H here.
Key Points:
- Charlotte: 6W 3D 1L in last 10, 2.1 goals per game, xG for 1.77 per game
- Columbus Crew: 4W 0D 6L in last 10, 1.6 goals conceded per game
- Columbus Crew home: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.1 conceded per game
- Charlotte away: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, 1.4 conceded per game
- No recent H2H at Columbus Crew's ground; last meeting was Charlotte 3-1 at their ground
Charlotte are the stronger side on form, and the price of 3.45 for an away win looks like value when you look at the gap in recent results and expected goals. I'm going with the away win.