Corinthians vs Atletico-MG Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Two sides stuck in the middle of the table, practically neck and neck on 33 points each. Corinthians sitting 13th, Atletico-MG right behind 'em in 14th. This could be a proper scrap for bragging rights.

Corinthians have been a bit up and down lately, haven't they? They've had some decent results - that 3-0 hammering of Mirassol (who're sitting pretty in 4th) was top drawer, and they nicked a 1-0 at Fluminense too. But then they go and lose 3-1 to Santos and 1-0 to the bottom club Sport Recife. Talk about inconsistent! At home though, they're not half bad - winning half of their last four on their own patch.

Atletico-MG, on the other hand, have been proper shocking away from home. Not a single win in their last four away trips, scoring a pathetic 0.5 goals per game on their travels. They did manage a creditable 1-1 draw with Cruzeiro, but getting stuffed 3-0 by Fluminense shows they can be rolled over.

When these two have met, it's been dead even - three wins each and three draws in nine meetings. Last time out was a 0-0 bore draw, and Corinthians have only won 25% of their home games against Atletico. But form counts for more than history, and right now there's only one side showing any signs of life at home versus the other's away misery.

Corinthians are averaging 1.75 goals at home this season, while Atletico are leaking two per game on the road. The stats are screaming home win here, even if the head-to-head doesn't back it up.

Key Points:

• Both teams level on 33 points in mid-table

• Corinthians unbeaten in two home games (W1 D1)

• Atletico-MG winless in four away matches (D1 L3)

• Atletico scoring just 0.5 goals per game away

• Head-to-head perfectly even historically

The bookies have Corinthians at 1.91, which seems about right given the circumstances. Atletico's away form is so dire that you can't really back them, and Corinthians should have enough to edge this one. Sometimes you gotta ignore the history and go with the current form, especially when one side can't buy a win on the road.