Preview
Value VinnyCosenza host Team Altamura on 18 October in Serie C Girone C, and the numbers at Cosenza's ground make a compelling case for the home side. Over 20 home games, Cosenza have won 13, drawn 2 and lost 5, averaging 2.05 points per game and 1.55 goals scored per match. That is a record built on consistency, not flashes of brilliance.
Team Altamura's away record paints a very different picture. Across 20 away games, they have won just 6, drawn 5 and lost 9, managing only 0.6 goals per game and failing to score in 10 of those 20 fixtures. Their last away outing, a 0-0 draw at Audace Cerignola two weeks ago, was part of a stretch in which they have scored zero in four of their last five matches. The 0-3 home defeat to Catania on 11 October has not done anything to restore confidence.
The head-to-head at Cosenza's ground adds another layer. The two recent meetings — a 1-0 Cosenza win at Cosenza's ground on 8 March 2026 and a 1-1 draw at Team Altamura's ground on 1 November 2025 — both finished under 2.5 goals, and Cosenza took the points in the meeting at their own ground. The fixture's venue record shows Cosenza 1W 0D 0L from the meeting at Cosenza's ground, with the only goal coming in their favour.
The counter-argument is real and worth acknowledging. Cosenza's last 10 games across all venues have been 1W 2D 7L, and their most recent home match was a 0-2 loss to Foggia on 4 October. Their last five games show just one win, one draw and three losses, with no clean sheets in that stretch. That recent dip is genuine, and it means Cosenza are not arriving at this fixture in the form their 20-game home record suggests. Team Altamura, for their part, did pick up a 2-1 home win over AZ Picerno on 19 September, and their last 10 games (2W 3D 5L) are marginally better than Cosenza's all-venue record in that window.
But the weight of evidence sits with Cosenza. A 13-win home record against an away side that scores 0.6 goals per game and has failed to score in half of its away matches is an advantage the market has not fully priced in. The bookmaker-implied probability on a Cosenza win sits at 37.74%, which I believe undersells what the home record and the away side's scoring drought actually tell us. My own read puts Cosenza's chance of winning closer to 55%, a gap that makes the 2.65 price genuinely attractive.
Key Points:
- Cosenza are 13W 2D 5L in 20 home games, scoring 1.55 per game; Team Altamura are 6W 5D 9L in 20 away games, scoring just 0.6 per game.
- Team Altamura have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches and in 10 of their last 20 away games.
- The head-to-head at Cosenza's ground was a 1-0 Cosenza win; both recent meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
- Cosenza's recent form is a concern (1W 2D 7L in last 10), but the 20-game home record is the stronger signal.
- The 2.65 price on a Cosenza win is priced at 37.74% implied, which I believe is too low given the home record and the away side's scoring drought.
Verdict: Cosenza home win at 2.65.