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Cosenza's home record tells a compelling story. Across 20 home games, they have won 13, drawn 2 and lost 5, averaging 2.05 points per game and 1.55 goals scored per match. That is a record that speaks for itself. The head-to-head at this venue reinforces the point: in the only meeting at Cosenza's ground within the last 12 months, on 8 March 2026, Cosenza held Team Altamura to a 1–0 victory. Team Altamura's away record, meanwhile, is the mirror image of weakness: 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in 20 away games, scoring just 0.6 goals per game and failing to score in 10 of those 20 matches.
The counter-argument, however, is Cosenza's recent form. In their last 10 games across all venues, Cosenza have won just once, drawn twice and lost seven, managing 0.5 points per game. Their last home game, a 0–2 defeat to Foggia on 4 October, and the 2–5 loss at Giugliano on 15 September show a side that is leaking goals. Team Altamura, while also struggling with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 5, did manage a 0–0 draw away at Audace Cerignola on 4 October, and their last five games have seen them fail to score in four of five. That defensive resilience on the road, however thin, means this is not a one-sided affair.
The market prices Cosenza's win at 2.65, implying a 37.74% chance. My own reading of the evidence — the strong home record, the head-to-head result, and Altamura's scoring drought on the road — puts Cosenza's probability in the mid-40s. That sits above the market's view, but it is far from the certainty I require before staking a single cent. When the numbers do not give me a clear, dominant edge, I pass. If it's not certain, it's not happening.
Key Points:
- Cosenza have won 13 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.55 per game.
- Team Altamura have failed to score in 10 of their last 20 away games, averaging 0.6 per game.
- The only recent meeting at Cosenza's ground ended 1–0 to the hosts.
- Cosenza's last 10 games across all venues: 1 win, 2 draws, 7 losses.
- Team Altamura have not scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
No Bet.