Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Cosenza hosting Team Altamura at their ground on 18 October, and if you've been following the numbers, there's a pretty clear story here.
Cosenza at home are the real deal. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 13, drawn 2 and lost 5, racking up 2.05 points per game. They've scored 31 goals in those 20 home fixtures – that's 1.55 a game – and kept 8 clean sheets. That's a solid record, the sort of thing that makes you feel comfortable backing them when the ball's rolling at their end of town.
Now look at Team Altamura on the road. Their last 20 away games? 6 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses. That's 1.15 points per game and just 12 goals scored – 0.6 a game. They've failed to score in 10 of those 20 away outings. That's a team that struggles to find the back of the net when they're playing on the road, and it's a problem that's been there for a while.
The head-to-head at Cosenza's ground tells the same story. The only meeting between these two at this venue, back in March 2026, ended 1-0 to Cosenza. The other meeting, at Team Altamura's ground in November 2025, was a 1-1 draw. So Cosenza have the edge at this particular ground, and it's not a huge one, but it's there.
The counter-argument, and I'll be honest about it, is Cosenza's recent form. Their last five games have been 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses. They lost 0-2 at home to Foggia just two weeks ago, and before that they were beaten 0-1 at Bari and 2-5 at Giugliano. Their last ten games show 7 losses. That's not pretty, and it's fair to ask whether the home record is still relevant when the team's been struggling for a month.
But here's the thing – Team Altamura aren't exactly flying either. Their last five is also 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses. They lost 0-3 at home to Catania seven days ago, and they've failed to score in four of their last five games. So you've got two teams in a bit of a rut, but one of them is at home with a record that says they win two out of every three games on this ground, and the other is on the road with a record that says they lose nearly half their away games.
Key Points:
- Cosenza's home record: 13W 2D 5L in 20 games, 2.05 points per game
- Team Altamura's away record: 6W 5D 9L in 20 games, 0.6 goals scored per game
- H2H at Cosenza's ground: 1-0 Cosenza win (March 2026)
- Team Altamura have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games
- Both teams are in poor recent form (1W 1D 3L in last 5 each)
The market has Cosenza at 2.65, which prices them at about 38%. I think the home record and Team Altamura's away struggles make Cosenza more likely to win than that price suggests. My gut says they're closer to a 45% chance, which means there's value here.
My pick: Cosenza home win.