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Right, folks, it's Cosenza versus Team Altamura on 18 October in Serie C Girone C, and I'm here to see if there's a little puppy worth backing in this one. 🐾
Let's start with what the numbers tell us. Cosenza have been solid at home over their last 20 games, picking up 13 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, scoring 1.55 per game and conceding just 1.05. That's a comfortable record, and in their head-to-head at this ground back in March, they edged Team Altamura 1–0. Their last outing was a 2–1 away win at AZ Picerno on 12 October, so they've got a little momentum going into this.
Now, Team Altamura. I love a little guy, and Altamura are certainly that here. But I have to be honest — their last five games have been rough. They lost 0–3 to Catania at home on 11 October, drew 0–0 at Audace Cerignola, lost 0–2 at Scafatese, beat AZ Picerno 2–1 at home, and lost 0–1 at Casertana. That's one win, one draw and three losses, with just two goals scored across the whole stretch. They've failed to score in four of those five games, and their away record over 20 games shows 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses, with 0.6 goals per game.
The head-to-head is small — just two meetings in the last 12 months. Cosenza won 1–0 at home in March, and they drew 1–1 at Altamura's ground in November. Both games finished with two goals or fewer.
The counter-argument for the little guy? Well, both teams are in similar recent form — one win, one draw, three losses each in their last five. Cosenza's home record, while strong, does include 5 losses in 20 games, and they've only managed 1 win in their last 10 across all venues. Team Altamura's away record does include 5 draws in 20 games, and the November meeting at Altamura's ground ended 1–1. There's a thread of low-scoring, tight games here.
But here's the thing — I've looked for value in the underdog, and I can't find it. Team Altamura's away record is poor, their recent form is dire with three scoreless defeats in five games, and Cosenza's home numbers are simply too strong. The market's view of Altamura winning sits around a third, but the football evidence points to a lower probability than that. The draw is similarly hard to support given Cosenza's 13 wins from 20 home games.
Key Points:
- Cosenza's home record: 13W 2D 5L in 20 games, 1.55 goals scored per game
- Team Altamura's away record: 6W 5D 9L in 20 games, 0.6 goals scored per game
- Head-to-head: Cosenza won 1–0 at home in March; 1–1 draw at Altamura's ground in November
- Both teams: 1W 1D 3L in their last five matches
- Team Altamura have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games
No Bet. The football doesn't give me enough confidence in the underdog, and the price doesn't offer the value I need to pull the trigger. Sometimes the little puppy just isn't ready, and that's okay — we'll find our next one.