Crawley Town vs Cambridge United Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League Two clash. On paper, it's a bit of a no-brainer. Cambridge United are sitting pretty in 5th, hunting down the automatic promotion spots, while Crawley Town are languishing in 20th, just a few points off the drop zone. A 27-point gap tells its own story, don't it?

Crawley's form is, to put it politely, a bit ropey. Two wins in their last ten, and those were against the league's strugglers: a 2-0 win over bottom club Harrogate and a 1-0 win at Barrow. They've shown a bit of fight, mind you, grinding out a 0-0 draw at a decent Walsall side. But losses to the likes of Bromley, Notts County, and Swindon show they struggle against the better sides. They're conceding 1.3 goals a game on average and only scoring 0.7. At home, it's not much better – just one win in their last five at the Broadfield Stadium.

Now, Cambridge are a different kettle of fish. Seven wins in their last ten is promotion form. They're banging in the goals – 19 in that run – and keeping things tight at the back, conceding just nine. Their 3-0 demolition of Oldham and a 2-1 win at Fleetwood are proper away performances. Yes, they had a proper shocker last time out, losing 2-1 to that same Harrogate side Crawley beat. But one bad day at the office doesn't make a summer. Before that, they'd won four on the spin in the league.

The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're a Cambridge fan. They've won five of the eight meetings, including a 3-1 victory back in October. Crawley have won two of the three at home, though, so they'll cling to that.

When you crunch the numbers, Cambridge are creating more from less. They've got a better shot accuracy (40% to Crawley's 35%) and are far more clinical in front of goal. Crawley might see more of the ball, but what are they doing with it? Not enough, by the looks of things.

Key Points:

Form Chasm: Cambridge have taken 22 points from their last 10 games; Crawley have managed just 8.

Goal Threat: Cambridge average 1.9 goals per game. Crawley concede 1.3 per game at home.

Recent Shock: Cambridge's loss to Harrogate is a warning, but their overall away record (60% win rate) is strong.

Head-to-Head: Cambridge won the reverse fixture 3-1 and lead the overall series 5-3.

• Table Talk: A win for Cambridge keeps them in the playoff hunt. A loss for Crawley drags them deeper into trouble.

So, what's the verdict? Sometimes you've got to call a spade a spade. Cambridge are the better team, in the better form, with more to play for. Crawley are scrapping, but their wins have come against the very worst. The bookies have Cambridge at a tasty 2.63 to win. I reckon that's a bit of value. Cambridge should have too much quality and firepower for a struggling Crawley side.

My Tip: Back Cambridge United to win.