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The Big O here, and I'm itching for goals in this one. CRB are at home on 18 October, and if you've been following their numbers, this is the kind of fixture where the scoreboard should be doing some serious overtime.
CRB's home record over the last 20 games tells a loud story: 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, with 1.85 goals scored per game and 1.1 conceded. Thirteen of those 20 home games went over 2.5 goals. In their last five matches across all venues, four of five have seen three or more goals, and they've scored 9 in that stretch at 1.8 per game. The 3-0 win over Cuiaba on 27 September and the 3-1 over Atletico Goianiense on 7 October show they're not afraid to open up at home. Their xG for in recent matches sits at 1.18 per game, which is a healthy attacking output.
Botafogo SP, though, are a different proposition on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses, with just 0.65 goals scored per game. Fifteen of those 20 away games finished under 2.5. In their last five matches, four of five have been under 2.5, and their current run of two wins has produced just three goals and one concession. The xG data backs this up — Botafogo SP have generated 0.56 expected goals per game in their last three matches with xG coverage, which is a quiet attack by any measure. Even in their last 10 games across all venues, only 5 of 10 went over 2.5.
The head-to-head is mostly historical, with the only meeting within the last 12 months being a 0-1 CRB win at Botafogo SP's ground on 30 June. The older meetings at CRB's ground (3-2 and 4-1) are dated and don't carry much weight for current form. The recent meeting was a low-scoring affair, which is a small warning sign for the goals fan.
So here's the tension: CRB's home numbers scream goals, but Botafogo SP's away numbers whisper quiet. The market prices Over 2.5 at 1.91, implying about 52%. My own read, weighing CRB's home scoring against Botafogo SP's away scoring drought, lands closer to 50-52%. That's not enough for me to feel the value is there at this price. The Big O wants the scoreboard to light up, but I can't honestly put the probability high enough to make the call when the away side's record is so consistently low-scoring.
Key Points:
- CRB have won 11 of their last 20 home games and scored 1.85 per game, with 13 of 20 going over 2.5
- Botafogo SP have scored just 0.65 per game in their last 20 away games, with 15 of 20 finishing under 2.5
- CRB's last five matches saw over 2.5 in four of five; Botafogo SP's last five saw under 2.5 in four of five
- The only recent head-to-head (30 June) was a 0-1 CRB win, a low-scoring affair
- Botafogo SP's xG for in recent matches sits at 0.56 per game, a quiet attacking output
No Bet. The football points both ways — CRB's home scoring is strong, but Botafogo SP's away record is a consistent low-scoring affair, and I can't find enough edge at 1.91 to make the Over 2.5 call.
