Right, so we've got CRB hosting Londrina on 24 October in Serie B, and let me tell you, the numbers here paint a pretty clear picture if you just let them do the talking.
CRB at home are the ones to watch. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 10, drawn 4 and lost 6, racking up 1.7 points per game. They score 1.8 per game at home and concede 1.15. That's a side that comes to work on their own patch. Londrina on the other hand, over 20 away games, have won just 4, drawn 5 and lost 11. That's 0.85 points per game, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.45. The gap between these two records is the kind of thing that makes you reach for the beer before the match even kicks off.
Now, I'll be honest with you — CRB's last game at home was a 0-1 loss to Botafogo SP on 18 October, and that stings a bit. But before that, they were winning 3-1 against Atletico Goianiense and 3-0 against Cuiaba. Two of their last three home games were comfortable wins. Londrina's away form in the last five is grim: they lost 1-2 to Avai, lost 0-2 to Vila Nova, and drew 2-2 at Athletic Club. Their only recent positive result was a 1-0 home win against Cuiaba on 20 October.
The head-to-head here is a bit thin on the recent stuff. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 4 July 2026 at Londrina's ground, and Londrina put 5 to 0 on CRB. That's a big result, but it was at their ground. At CRB's ground, there are no recent meetings. The older ones — 2023 and 2022 — show CRB winning 2-1 and 1-0 at their ground, but those are historical results and don't really say much about current form. I'd say the head-to-head is dated and the 5-0 at Londrina's ground doesn't really tell you what happens at CRB's place.
The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: CRB did lose at home to Botafogo SP just six days ago, and they were beaten 5-0 by Londrina three months back. That 5-0 is a reminder that CRB can be vulnerable, and the 0-1 loss shows they're not untouchable at home. Also, Londrina's xG in their last two games with data was 1.96 per game, which suggests they've been creating chances even when the results haven't come. And the full head-to-head aggregate, spanning 10 years, shows 9 of 15 meetings went under 2.5 goals, though most of those are historical results.
But the overall picture — CRB's home record of 10 wins in 20 games against Londrina's 4 wins in 20 away games — is hard to ignore. The points-per-game gap (1.7 to 0.85) and the goals-per-game gap (1.8 scored to 1.0 scored) tell you CRB are the stronger side in this specific setup.
Key Points:
- CRB's home record: 10W 4D 6L in 20 games, 1.7 PPG, 1.8 goals scored per game
- Londrina's away record: 4W 5D 11L in 20 games, 0.85 PPG, 1.0 goals scored per game
- Only recent H2H meeting (4 July 2026) was at Londrina's ground: 5-0 to Londrina
- CRB lost 0-1 at home to Botafogo SP on 18 October; Londrina won 1-0 at home to Cuiaba on 20 October
- Full H2H aggregate: 9 of 15 meetings went under 2.5 goals
The market prices CRB as the clear favourite, but my honest read of the football is that the 0-1 loss six days ago and the 5-0 defeat three months back keep me from being as confident as the price suggests. I'd put CRB's chance at around 65 to 68%, which is below the level I'd need to feel comfortable backing them. The other markets — over 2.5, under 2.5, BTTS — don't offer a clear edge either when you weigh the recent form against the venue records. So I'm sitting this one out.
No Bet.
