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Right then, let's have a proper look at this Brazilian Serie B clash between CRB and Operario-PR. The lads from CRB are sitting pretty in 8th spot with 52 points, while Operario are languishing down in 13th with 43 points. With the season winding down, both sides have plenty to play for.
CRB have been decent on their own patch lately, winning 4 of their last 5 home games and banging in 2 goals per game at home. They've had some decent results too - holding league leaders Coritiba to a 0-0 draw away from home, and beating Atletico Goianiense 2-1 at their place. They know how to get results when they're playing in front of their own fans.
Operario-PR, on the other hand, have been shocking on the road. Absolutely shocking. They haven't won a single away game in their last 4 attempts, managing just one draw and three losses. Even worse, they're only scoring 0.25 goals per game away from home - that's one goal every four matches! Their recent away form includes a 3-0 thumping at Novorizontino and a 2-0 loss at Chapecoense-sc.
When these two have met in the past, it's been pretty even overall, but CRB have never lost at home to Operario in 4 attempts (2 wins, 2 draws). The last two meetings both ended 1-1, but given current form, you'd fancy CRB to break that pattern.
The stats paint a clear picture: CRB are solid at home, Operario are terrible away. CRB score plenty at home (2.0 per game), Operario barely score away (0.25 per game). It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out where the value lies here.
The bookies have CRB at 1.80 to win, which looks about right to me. Given the massive gulf between CRB's home form and Operario's away struggles, I reckon that's decent value for what should be a straightforward home victory.
