Crewe vs Shrewsbury Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League Two scrap between Crewe and Shrewsbury. On paper, you'd think Crewe have this sorted - they're sitting pretty in 9th while Shrewsbury are propping up the table in 22nd. But football's not played on paper, is it?

Crewe's recent form has been a bit hit and miss, mind. They've only managed 1.30 points per game over their last ten, which ain't exactly setting the world alight. They did have a cracking 3-2 win over Grimsby at home, and beat Notts County 2-1, but they've also had some proper stinkers - losing 1-2 to Doncaster and getting turned over 0-1 by Bromley at home. The big issue for Crewe is their defence - only one clean sheet in ten games is shocking, and they're leaking 1.33 goals per game at home.

Now Shrewsbury, despite being bottom of the league, have actually been playing better recently. They're grabbing 1.40 points per game over their last ten, which is better than Crewe! They went and smashed South Shields 3-1 in the FA Cup, and they've been decent on their travels too - scoring 1.6 goals per away game. They've kept three clean sheets in their last ten, which is three more than Crewe have managed.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading. Crewe have a proper shocking home record against Shrewsbury - only one win in five meetings at their place. Recent matches have been tight affairs too, mostly 1-0s and 1-1s.

When you look at the stats, both teams tend to score. Crewe have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games, while Shrewsbury are at 60%. Given that Crewe can't keep a clean sheet to save their lives at home, and Shrewsbury actually score more away than they do at home, I reckon we're in for goals at both ends.

The market has Crewe as favorites at 2.05, but I think that's missing the fact that Shrewsbury are playing better than their league position suggests. Both teams to score at 1.91 looks like the smart money here - both sides have got goals in them and neither can defend for toffee.