Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you — this one's got the smell of a braai on it. Criciuma at home against America Mineiro, and the numbers are telling me something very clear.
America Mineiro have lost their last five games. Five. And in those five, they haven't scored a single goal. Zero. They've conceded seven. That's not a bad run of form, that's a team that's lost the plot. Their away record over 20 games is 1 win, 6 draws and 13 losses, with 0.45 points per game. They've failed to score in 10 of those 20 away outings. This is a side that's struggling to find a way into games on the road, and it's been showing for a while now.
Criciuma at home, on the other hand, are a different animal. Over 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 5 and lost 4, averaging 1.9 points per game. They score 1.45 per game at home and concede just 0.85. They've kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 home games. That's a solid home record, and it's the kind of record that makes you feel comfortable when you're putting a stake on it. I've had my share of braais where the meat was so good you forgot the vegetables existed, and this home record is the meat of the argument.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months backs this up nicely. Criciuma beat America Mineiro 2-1 at home on 12 October 2025, and then won 1-0 at America Mineiro's ground on 23 June this year. Two meetings, two Criciuma wins. At Criciuma's ground specifically, the only recent meeting was that 2-1 win. The older meetings go back to 2021 and 2012, so I'll leave those in the history book where they belong.
Now, I'll give you the counter-argument because I'm not a fool. Criciuma's recent form is a bit patchy. They lost 0-1 at Ceara on 8 October, just four days before this kickoff. They've only won 2 of their last 5, and they failed to score in 3 of those 5. Their most recent home game was a 0-2 loss to Operario-PR on 22 September. So they're not rolling, and there's a question mark over whether they can find the goals when it matters. I get it — even the best braai master has a night where the coals go out.
But here's the thing — America Mineiro haven't scored in five games. Five. That's not a blip, that's a pattern. And Criciuma at home have a record that says they're going to win more often than not. The xG data from late August shows America Mineiro were facing 2.24 xG against per game in those three games, which tells you they're being exposed defensively on a regular basis.
The market has Criciuma at 1.42, which implies about a 70% chance. I think that's a touch short. Given America Mineiro's complete scoring drought, their terrible away record, and Criciuma's solid home numbers, I'd put Criciuma's chance of winning closer to three-quarters. That's above what the market is pricing in, and it gives me the edge I like to see before I put a rand on it.
Key Points:
- America Mineiro have lost their last 5 games and scored 0 goals in that span
- Criciuma's home record: 11W 5D 4L over 20 games, 1.9 points per game
- H2H: Criciuma won both meetings in the last 12 months (2-1 at home, 1-0 away)
- America Mineiro's away record: 1W 6D 13L over 20 games, 0.45 points per game
- Criciuma's recent form is mixed (2W 3L in last 5), but the opponent's form is dire
My pick: Criciuma home win at 1.42.