Preview
Value VinnyAmerica Mineiro have not scored a single goal in their last five matches. Zero. Not one. Five consecutive games without finding the net, and they travel to Criciuma on 12 October still without a goal to their name. That is not a blip; that is a pattern the numbers make impossible to ignore.
Criciuma, for their part, are not flying at the moment — two wins and three losses in their last five, including a 0–1 defeat at Ceara on 8 October. But their home record over 20 games tells a very different story: 11 wins, 5 draws, 4 losses, 1.9 points per game, and 1.45 goals scored per game. They have kept a clean sheet in 10 of those 20 home fixtures and failed to score in only 4. At home, Criciuma are a team that scores and defends in equal measure.
The away side's numbers are even more telling. America Mineiro's record over 20 away games is 1 win, 6 draws, 13 losses — 0.45 points per game. They have scored 0.7 per game away and conceded 1.8. They have failed to score in 10 of those 20 away outings. Add to that the fact that they have not scored in any of their last five matches across all venues, and the picture is stark.
The head-to-head reinforces the point. In the two meetings within the last 12 months, Criciuma won both: 2–1 at Criciuma's ground on 12 October 2025 and 1–0 at America Mineiro's ground on 23 June 2026. The older meetings — a 1–1 in 2025 and two Copa Do Brasil draws in 2021 — are historical and do not reflect current form.
The counter-argument is Criciuma's recent inconsistency. They lost 0–4 to Atletico Goianiense on 13 September away and 0–2 to Operario-PR on 22 September at home. Their last game was a 0–1 loss at Ceara. In their last 10 games across all venues, they have won only 3 and failed to score in 5. So Criciuma are not in their best form, and the short price on a home win reflects that wobble.
But the question I am actually asking is not whether Criciuma win. It is whether both teams score. And the evidence on that question is overwhelming. America Mineiro have not scored in five straight. Criciuma have not scored in three of their last five. In their last 10 games, both teams have recorded BTTS no in 8 of 10. At Criciuma's ground, BTTS no has occurred in 13 of 20 home games. America Mineiro have failed to score in 10 of 20 away games. The market's view puts both teams scoring at 44.25%, but the recent scoring droughts on both sides make that number look generous.
Key Points:
- America Mineiro have scored 0 goals in their last 5 matches (conceded 7)
- Criciuma home record: 11W 5D 4L in 20 games, 1.45 goals per game, 10 clean sheets
- America Mineiro away record: 1W 6D 13L in 20 games, 0.7 goals per game, 10 failed to score
- H2H: Criciuma won both recent meetings (2–1 at home, 1–0 away)
- Both teams recorded BTTS no in 8 of their last 10 games
Verdict: I'm backing both teams not to score at 1.67. The five-game scoring drought for America Mineiro, combined with Criciuma's own recent goalless stretches, makes this the clearest value in the market. The bookmakers see both teams scoring at 44.25%, but the numbers say the last goal America Mineiro found was in a different fixture.