Cruz Azul vs Puebla Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Liga MX clash. Cruz Azul, sitting pretty in second, welcome Puebla who are hanging around in eighth. Both on three points from two games, so it's early days and everyone's still finding their feet. But the numbers, my friends, tell a story that's more exciting than a last-minute winner.

Cruz Azul are a bit of a puzzle at home. They've won 40% of their last five at their gaff, scoring a healthy 1.80 goals per game. But they also let in 1.60 on average. Their last home game was a solid 2-0 win against Atlas, which is a decent result. Before that, though, they lost 3-2 to Pumas and 1-2 to Flamengo in that Intercontinental Cup final. So they can be got at. Over their last ten, they've kept only three clean sheets.

Now, Puebla. Blimey, they love a goal fest, don't they? In their last ten games, they've not kept a single clean sheet. Not one! They concede 2.20 goals per game on average. Away from home, it's the same story: 1.60 scored, but a whopping 2.20 conceded. Their last away trip was a 1-0 loss to Atlas, but before that they beat Leon 2-1 and drew 4-4 with FC Juarez. They score, but they leak like a sieve.

Here's the funny bit about the head-to-head. Cruz Azul have a mental block against Puebla at home. In their last four meetings on Cruz Azul's patch, it's been two draws and two wins for Puebla. Cruz Azul haven't won at home against this lot in the data we've got! But, and it's a big but, just two months ago Cruz Azul went to Puebla and stuffed them 3-0. So which trend continues?

The stats point to goals. Both teams have scored in 70% of their recent matches. In the nine head-to-head games, both teams have scored in seven of them. Over 2.5 goals has happened in six of those nine clashes. Cruz Azul average 3.40 total goals per home game, Puebla average 3.80 per away game. Do the maths – that's a recipe for a net-bulging night.

The bookies have Cruz Azul as heavy favourites at 1.30, but given their dodgy home record against Puebla, that price feels a bit skinny for my liking. The real value, in my book, lies in the goals markets. Over 2.5 goals is at 1.57, and Both Teams to Score 'Yes' is a tempting 1.95.

Key Points:

Cruz Azul score (1.80 pg) but concede (1.60 pg) at home.

Puebla score (1.60 pg) but concede heavily (2.20 pg) everywhere.

Puebla have kept ZERO clean sheets in their last 10 games.

Head-to-head: Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Cruz Azul have NOT won at home vs Puebla in their last 4 H2H meetings (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses).

Last meeting (Nov 2025): Cruz Azul won 3-0 away.

So, what's the shout? I think both teams find the net. Cruz Azul should have enough to score a couple, and Puebla's attack will likely get one against a defence that's not exactly rock-solid. The 1.95 for Both Teams to Score offers much better value than the short home win price. Let's back the goals.