Cruzeiro are at home on 23 October to take on Remo in Serie A, and man, the numbers here are telling me something. Cruzeiro's home record over 20 games is 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. They score 1.75 per game at home and concede just 0.85. Eight clean sheets in those 20, and they've failed to score in only 1. That's a team that comes home and does the business.
Remo's away record, on the other hand, is 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in 20 games. They score 1 per game away and concede 1.55. Eight of those 20 away games ended with them not scoring at all. That's a team that travels and struggles to find a way through.
The recent form makes it even more one-sided. Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5, including that 4-2 away hammering of Gremio on 18 October and the 2-0 home win over Sao Paulo on 8 October. Their last 10 across all venues: 5 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses, with 2 goals scored per game. Remo have not won a single game in their last 5. Three draws, two losses, 0.8 goals scored per game. Their last 10: 0 wins, 4 draws, 6 losses. I've been eating braai all weekend and I still can't believe how flat Remo have been.
The head-to-head is thin. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 25 April 2026 at Remo's ground, and Cruzeiro won 1-0. The older meetings go back 5 years and are just historical record, so I'm not building anything on those. In the one recent meeting, Cruzeiro got the job done.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Remo have drawn their last 3 games, and that stubbornness matters. They've kept 4 clean sheets in 20 away games and failed to score in 8 of those 20, which means they can sit deep and make it a grind. Cruzeiro have lost 2 of their last 5, both on the road, and their home record, while strong, does include 4 losses in 20. A 1-0 or a 0-0 is not out of the question when a team is drawing three in a row.
Key Points:
- Cruzeiro: 13W 3D 4L in 20 home games, 1.75 scored per game, 0.85 conceded per game
- Remo: 4W 6D 10L in 20 away games, 1 scored per game, 1.55 conceded per game
- Remo have not won in their last 5 matches (3 draws, 2 losses)
- Only 1 recent head-to-head meeting within 12 months (Cruzeiro won 1-0 away, 25 April 2026)
- Cruzeiro's last 10: 5W 1D 4L; Remo's last 10: 0W 4D 6L
The football points firmly to Cruzeiro, and I'd rate their chances of winning at around 72%, which sits right around the market's 72.46% implied by the 1.38 price. But the price is asking me to be more confident than the evidence lets me be, and I'm not going to stretch a 72% into something I can't back. The other available markets do not offer a supported edge either. No Bet.
