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The Big O here, and I'm eyeing this Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest fixture with a particular hunger. Premier League, 11 October, and the venue numbers are singing a song I absolutely love.
Crystal Palace at home over their last 20 games have been a goals machine — 13 of those 20 went over 2.5, they've scored 1.75 per game and conceded 1.15. Nottingham Forest on the road over 20 away games have been just as generous: 14 of 20 over 2.5, scoring 1.75 per game and conceding 1.4. When you line those two records up, the scoring picture is one that makes a man of my... let's call it "generous" constitution... sit up and take notice. Both teams have failed to score in only a handful of those venue games — 4 of 20 for Palace at home, 3 of 20 for Forest away — and the clean sheet counts are low (9 and 5 respectively). The BTTS split is even, but the over 2.5 counts are the headline, and they're both in the 13-to-14 range. That's the kind of numbers I live for.
Now, the counter-argument, and it's a big one. The head-to-head between these two is a monument to low-scoring draws. Across 11 meetings spanning 13 years, 9 of 11 finished under 2.5, and 8 of 11 were level. The most recent meeting, back in February at Forest's ground, was a 1–1. The older meetings at Crystal Palace's ground were both 1–1. I'll be upfront — most of those meetings are historical, and the one recent meeting doesn't paint a picture of a goals festival. Forest's last 10 games have seen 6 of 10 finish under 2.5, and their last 5 at all venues had 3 of 5 under. Palace's last 5 had 2 of 5 under, but their most recent home game — a 0–2 loss to Bristol City eight days ago — was a quiet affair. Forest's last 10 shows them scoring just 0.9 per game, which is the kind of output that makes me reach for the sedatives.
So here's where I land. The venue records are screaming "goals, goals, goals," and that's my entire world. But the head-to-head is a wall of low-scoring draws, and the recent form of both sides has been patchy. I'd put my gut at roughly 55% for over 2.5, which is a decent lean but not the kind of number that makes me feel like I'm sitting on a goldmine. And with no eligible price on the table, I simply can't pull the trigger.
Key Points:
- Crystal Palace's last 20 home games: 13 over 2.5, 1.75 scored per game
- Nottingham Forest's last 20 away games: 14 over 2.5, 1.4 conceded per game
- Head-to-head: 9 of 11 meetings under 2.5, 8 draws
- Forest's last 10: 6 under 2.5, 0.9 scored per game
- Both teams lost their most recent matches (Palace 0–2 at home, Forest 0–1 at home)
No Bet. The available prices could not be used for a recommendation, and even setting that aside, the head-to-head's low-scoring history and both sides' recent quiet form keep me from the confidence I need on an Over.