Cuiaba vs Goias Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Cuiaba and Goias. Both sides are knocking about in mid-table with not much to play for, but that doesn't mean we can't find some value in this one.

Cuiaba are sitting 11th with 50 points, and their recent form's been a bit of a mixed bag, ain't it? They've had some decent results at home, mind you - beating both Coritiba (who're top of the league) and Chapecoense-sc 1-0. But they've also shipped three against remo and lost 2-0 to Amazonas in their last two outings. At home, they're averaging exactly a goal scored and a goal conceded per game - proper middle-of-the-road stuff.

Goias, meanwhile, are 7th on 55 points, and they've become the draw specialists of late. Five draws in their last ten games tells its own story, doesn't it? Away from home, they've been particularly stubborn - four draws and one win in their last five on the road. The key stat here is their away defense: they're only letting in 0.4 goals per game away from home. That's solid as a rock, that is. Problem is, they're not scoring many either - just 0.6 per game on their travels.

When these two have met before, it's generally been tight stuff. Goias have the edge historically with five wins to Cuiaba's three, but at home, Cuiaba have held their own with two wins from four meetings. The last time they played, Goias ran out 3-1 winners, but that was back in July.

Looking at the recent patterns, I'm seeing a proper low-scoring affair on the cards. Goias will come and make themselves hard to break down, while Cuiaba aren't exactly free-scoring at home. With Goias' defensive record on the road and Cuiaba's recent struggles to find the net consistently, I'd be surprised if we see more than a couple of goals here.

The stats back this up too - only two of the nine previous meetings between these sides have gone over 2.5 goals. Sometimes the best bets are the simple ones, and this looks like one of those occasions where keeping it tight pays off.