Atalanta vs Udinese Prediction

Alright, fancy a flutter on the Serie A this weekend? Atalanta vs Udinese is the fixture that’s caught my eye, and I’ll tell you why the home side look a solid bet at 1.57.

Atalanta are sitting pretty in 7th, ten points clear of Saturday’s visitors, and it’s their form at the Gewiss Stadium that’s got me reaching for my wallet. Four wins from their last four home games – and we’re not talking about scraping past the relegation fodder here, mate. They’ve put four past Borussia Dortmund, two past Napoli, and three past Juventus in the Coppa Italia. That’s 11 goals in four games, averaging nearly three a pop. Even when they’ve had a wobble – like that 2-1 defeat at Sassuolo last weekend – they bounce back at home.

Now, Udinese are no mugs, sitting 10th and coming off the back of a thumping 3-0 win against Fiorentina. But here’s the rub – that was at the Dacia Arena. Away from home, they’ve been a bit hit-and-miss, losing three of their last five on the road, including a 2-1 defeat at struggling Lecce and a 1-0 loss at Bologna. They’ve only managed six goals in those five away days, and while they’ve picked up wins at Verona and Torino, Atalanta are a different kettle of fish entirely.

The head-to-head makes for decent reading if you’re backing the hosts too. Atalanta are unbeaten at home against Udinese in the last four meetings, winning two and drawing two. Udinese did nick a 1-0 win earlier this season, but that was on their own patch.

Key Points:

• Atalanta have won their last four home matches, scoring 11 goals against quality opposition including Napoli and Juventus

• Udinese have lost three of their last five away games, failing to score in two of those defeats

• The goal expectancy for the match sits at just under three goals, suggesting an open game

• Atalanta’s home defence has been solid, conceding just three goals in their last four home fixtures

Summary: Atalanta are a fortress at home right now, and Udinese’s away form doesn’t suggest they’ll be the ones to stop that. The 1.57 is short, but it’s short for a reason – the value is in the quality of the home side. Back Atalanta to take the three points.