Crewe vs Newport County Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Tuesday night tussle between Crewe and the basement boys Newport County. And blimey, what a tale of two teams we've got here!

Crewe are sitting pretty in 11th place with 27 points on the board, while Newport are rock bottom of League Two with a measly 12 points. That's not just a gap, that's a chasm wider than the Thames!

The Railwaymen have been decent of late, mind you. They're bagging 1.8 goals per game and have put some proper results together - that 3-1 win over Shrewsbury and a 3-2 victory against Grimsby show they can score for fun at home. Speaking of home, Crewe are averaging 2.17 goals per game on their own patch. Not bad at all, is it?

Newport, on the other hand, are having a right nightmare. They've managed just 2 wins in their last 10 games and are scoring a pathetic 0.9 goals per game. Away from home, it's even worse - just 0.8 goals per game! They've just been stuffed 3-0 by Boreham Wood in the FA Cup and could only manage a 2-2 draw with Barrow, who aren't exactly setting the world alight either.

Now, I know what you're thinking - the head-to-head shows Newport have had Crewe's number over the years (4 wins to 1), but form over history, mate. Always form over history. That 0-3 drubbing last season? Ancient history in football terms.

Crewe are scoring for fun at home, Newport can't buy a goal away from home. The stats don't lie, guv'nor. Crewe are averaging nearly 13 shots per game at home compared to Newport's measly 10.6 on their travels.

The odds of 1.60 for a home win look about right to me. There's value there without being a gift from the gods. Newport are in proper relegation trouble and Crewe should have enough quality to see them off.

Key Points:

• Crewe sit 11th with 27 points, Newport are bottom with just 12 points

• Crewe scoring 2.17 goals per game at home, Newport managing only 0.8 away

• Newport have won just 2 of their last 10 games

• Crewe's recent form includes wins against Shrewsbury (3-1) and Grimsby (3-2)

• Despite poor H2H record, current form heavily favors Crewe

The Verdict: This has got home win written all over it. Crewe are flying, Newport are dying. Simple as that.