Derby vs Middlesbrough Prediction

Right then, let's get stuck into this New Year's Day cracker at Pride Park. Derby, sitting 11th, welcome high-flying Middlesbrough, who are flying in 2nd place. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch – there's an 11-point gap between them. But as we all know, football isn't played on paper, especially not on a chilly January afternoon.

Let's talk about the Rams first. Their form's been, well, a bit Rams-like – stubborn but not exactly thrilling. They've drawn their last two, 1-1 at Birmingham and 1-1 at home to Portsmouth. Before that, they smashed Sheffield Wednesday 3-0, but let's be honest, everyone's been doing that. The real worry is their home form. From their last four games at Pride Park, they've got zero wins, two draws, and two losses. Even worse, they're shipping an average of two goals a game in that spell. They lost 3-1 to Leicester and 3-2 to Watford on their own patch. They can score, mind you – they've netted in 8 of their last 10 – but keeping the back door shut has been a real problem.

Now, over to Boro. They're the form team, no two ways about it. Five wins from their last ten, and they're banging in the goals on the road – 1.75 per game recently. They put four past a decent Hull City side away from home and beat QPR 3-1. They did have a blip, losing 2-0 at Bristol City, but they bounced back with a solid 0-0 draw against Blackburn. Oh, and they already beat this Derby side 2-1 just over a month ago. They like having the ball too, averaging over 64% possession away from home.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Historically, Derby have been a bit of a bogey team at home for Boro, winning three and drawing one of their last four meetings at Pride Park. But that was then, and this is now. Current form trumps history most days, and Boro are the side with all the momentum.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Boro as favourites at 2.40, which is fair enough. But for my money, the value lies in the goals market. Look at the stats: Derby's last 10 games have seen both teams score in 80% of them. Boro's games have seen both teams score 70% of the time. Derby concede two a game at home, Boro score nearly two a game away. It's a recipe for goals at both ends.

The goal expectancy numbers point to over 2.5 goals, and the odds for Both Teams to Score are a nice even 1.83. Given both teams' tendencies to get involved in open, scoring games, I fancy the nets to ripple at both ends.

Key Points:

Middlesbrough are 2nd, 11 points clear of 11th-placed Derby.

Derby are winless in their last 4 home games (D2 L2), conceding 2 goals per game on average.

Middlesbrough score 1.75 goals per game on their recent travels.

Both Teams have Scored in 80% of Derby's last 10 games and 70% of Boro's.

• The last meeting (Nov 29th) ended 2-1 to Middlesbrough.

The Simple Tip: All the signs point towards both teams finding the back of the net. Derby are leaky at home but can score, and Boro have the firepower to trouble any defence. At odds of 1.83, Both Teams to Score - Yes is the smart play here.