Leicester vs Ipswich Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash. Leicester at home to Ipswich. On paper, you'd fancy the Foxes, given they've bossed this fixture historically. But football isn't played on paper, is it? It's played on a cold Saturday afternoon, and the form book is shouting something very different.

Leicester are sitting 13th, having a bit of a wobble. Their last ten games read like a bad week at the office: three wins, two draws, five losses. They've shipped 17 goals in that run and haven't kept a single clean sheet. Not one. At home, it's even grimmer – just one win in their last four at the King Power, conceding nearly two goals a game. They've had some decent results, mind – a 3-1 win at Derby and a 2-1 win over Stoke – but they've also lost at home to the likes of Sheffield United and Blackburn. That's not promotion form, that's mid-table mediocrity.

Now, let's talk Ipswich. The Tractor Boys are purring along in 4th place and they are in seriously good nick. Six wins, three draws, and just one loss in their last ten. They've only let in six goals in that entire spell, keeping five clean sheets. That's a proper defence. And away from home? They're even more lethal, scoring at a rate of 2.4 goals per game on their travels. Their recent results tell the story: a 1-0 win over a decent Stoke side, and then a proper statement – a 3-0 demolition of league leaders Coventry. They also went to Hull and won 2-0. This is a team full of confidence.

Yes, history says Leicester have the hex over Ipswich, winning five of the last nine meetings. The last time they met, Leicester won 2-0. But that was then. This Ipswich side looks a different beast altogether. Leicester's defence has more holes than a sieve, and Ipswich's attack is sharp enough to exploit it.

When you crunch the numbers, it's a no-brainer. Leicester average 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Ipswich average 1.8 scored and a miserly 0.6 conceded. Ipswich also create more chances (14.4 shots per game to Leicester's 10.7) and are more accurate with them. All the momentum is with the visitors.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Ipswich at 2.15 to win. To me, that's generous. Given the stark contrast in form and defensive solidity, I make Ipswich a much stronger favourite than those odds suggest. There's real value in backing the away win here.

Key Points:

Ipswich are 4th, flying with 6 wins in their last 10.

Leicester are 13th, struggling with 5 losses in their last 10 and no clean sheets.

Ipswich's defence is rock-solid, conceding only 6 goals in their last 10 games.

Ipswich score freely away from home (2.4 goals per game on average).

• Head-to-head history favours Leicester, but current form trumps it.

The Simple Tip: All the smart money points one way. Back Ipswich to continue their excellent run and take all three points on the road. The value in the away win price is too good to ignore.