West Brom vs Swansea Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash between two sides who've been struggling to find their feet this season. West Brom, sitting in 17th, host a Swansea side that's propping up the table in 20th, and honestly, the form book doesn't make pretty reading for the visitors.

West Brom have been a bit hit and miss lately, but there's one thing that stands out - they've been decent enough at home. Unbeaten in their last four at their own patch with two wins and two draws, they've been keeping things tight at the back too. Only letting in half a goal per game at home is proper solid, and they've managed to find the net against the likes of Oxford United and Preston in recent home fixtures. That 2-1 win over Preston was particularly tasty, given Preston have been pushing for the play-offs.

Swansea, on the other hand, are in a right old state. One win in their last ten games tells you everything you need to know. Away from home, they're absolutely shocking - zero wins in their last four on the road, scoring just 0.5 goals per game while shipping 1.5. They've been getting battered by teams they really should be competing with - 3-0 at Bristol City, 2-1 at Preston, and they could only manage a draw against Charlton. Their only recent win came against rock-bottom Norwich, and even that was at home.

The head-to-head record slightly favours Swansea over the years, but West Brom have actually won half of their home meetings against the Swans. When you factor in current form, that historical advantage counts for very little.

Looking at the numbers, West Brom are averaging a goal per game at home while keeping it tight defensively. Swansea are struggling to score away from home and can't stop conceding. The goal expectancy has the Baggies scoring 1.25 to Swansea's 0.5, which sounds about right to me.

With West Brom's solid home record going up against Swansea's dreadful away form, this looks like a straightforward home win to me. The Baggies might not be setting the world alight, but they know how to get the job done on their own patch against struggling opposition.