Werder Bremen vs Union Berlin Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Bundesliga scrap between Werder Bremen and Union Berlin. On paper, it's tight as a drum - only two points separating 'em in the table. But dig a bit deeper, and there's a story to tell.

Bremen are having a right old time of it at home, and not in a good way. They've only won 20% of their home games this season, scoring a pathetic 0.8 goals per game on their own patch. Recent results don't make for pretty reading either - a 2-2 draw with Heidenheim was followed by getting stuffed 4-0 by Bayern and 3-0 by Freiburg at home. They did grab a 1-0 against St Pauli, but let's be honest, that's been the exception rather than the rule.

Union Berlin, on the other hand, are like a different beast away from home. They're winning half their away matches and averaging 2.25 goals per game on their travels! That's proper impressive stuff. They just put three past Gladbach and had that mad 4-3 thriller against Frankfurt. Their defense away from home is about as solid as a paper bag though, conceding two goals per game.

The head-to-head doesn't make happy reading for Bremen fans either - Union have won 6 of the 9 meetings between these two sides, including 3 wins at Bremen's place.

When you look at the numbers, Union just look like the better bet here. Better form, better away record than Bremen's home record, and they've got the historical edge over their opponents. Bremen are struggling to score at home while Union are banging 'em in for fun away from home.

The odds have Union at 3.40 for the away win, which looks tasty given their away form and Bremen's home struggles. Sometimes you gotta trust the numbers, and right now they're pointing firmly towards Union taking all three points back to Berlin.