Cesena vs Frosinone Prediction

Alright, gather round! We've got a proper Serie B scrap on Saturday as Cesena host promotion-chasing Frosinone, and the form book couldn't be more lopsided if you tried.

Let's start with the home side, and I won't sugar-coat it - Cesena are having a shocker. Two wins from their last ten, six defeats, and shipping two goals a game like they're going out of fashion. That 4-0 pasting by Venezia at home in February was a proper eye-opener, and they've lost four of their last five on their own patch. The only respite was a gritty 0-0 draw at Modena last weekend, which at least stopped the rot, but scoring just 1.1 goals per game while conceding 2.0 tells you everything about their struggles.

Now Frosinone, they're a different kettle of fish entirely. Sitting pretty in third with 58 points, they've lost just once in ten - and that was against the runaway leaders Venezia. They're banging in 1.9 goals per game and haven't lost away from home in their last five trips, winning two and drawing three. That 3-0 demolition of Sampdoria last weekend showed they're back to winning ways after a spell of drawing games for fun (five draws in their last ten, if you're counting).

Here's the rub though - Cesena have got a bit of a hoodoo over Frosinone at home. They've never lost to them on their own turf in three attempts, with one win and two draws. And with Frosinone's recent habit of sharing the spoils (2-2, 2-2, 2-2 in three of their last four), you might think twice about backing the away win at 2.35.

But I'm looking at the underlying numbers, and they scream Frosinone. The goal expectancies have this down as a 1.2 vs 2.2 affair, and Cesena's defence has been about as solid as a chocolate teapot against top-half sides. Both teams have scored in six of their seven meetings, so goals are virtually guaranteed - the 1.57 on BTTS looks tempting, and Over 2.5 at 1.67 has merit given Cesena's tendency to leak goals.

Key Points:

• Frosinone unbeaten in last 5 away (W2 D3 L0) and lost just once in last 10 overall

• Cesena have lost 4 of last 5 home games, conceding 2.4 goals per game in that spell

• Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 head-to-heads

• Frosinone averaging 18 shots per game vs Cesena's 12.6

• Cesena kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 10 matches

Summary:

Look, Cesena's home record against Frosinone is decent historically, but current form is king in this game. Frosinone are pushing for automatic promotion while Cesena are mid-table fodder leaking goals for fun. The 2.35 on the away win represents solid value - Frosinone should have too much quality for a side that's lost four of their last five at home. Back the visitors to keep their unbeaten away run intact.