Everton vs Burnley Prediction

Everton welcome Burnley to Goodison Park on Tuesday night looking to end a miserable run of home form that has seen them fail to win any of their last six on their own patch. The Toffees sit pretty in 8th place with 40 points, but their home record recently reads like a horror story for the Goodison faithful – three draws and three defeats in their last half-dozen, including losses to Bournemouth and Manchester United.

Burnley, meanwhile, are scrapping for their lives down in 19th with just 19 points from 28 games. But don't let the table fool you completely – the Clarets have been a different beast on the road lately. They've taken points from Chelsea and Liverpool in their last four away trips, and even snatched a 3-2 win at Crystal Palace. The men in claret and blue have shown they can mix it with the big boys when they fancy it.

The recent form paints a picture of two teams who can't keep clean sheets. Everton have managed just one shutout in their last ten outings, while Burnley haven't kept a single clean sheet in that same period. Both teams have seen both sides find the net in 80% of their last ten games – that's eight out of ten for the maths fans among you.

Head-to-head, Everton have dominated this fixture at home, winning four of the last five against Burnley on Merseyside. But their most recent meeting back in December ended in a drab 0-0 draw, and given Everton's current struggles in front of their own fans, don't expect a cakewalk.

The stats suggest goals. Burnley's matches have been averaging 3.8 goals per game over the last ten – that's proper basketball territory – while Everton's have been slightly more reserved at 2.7. With the Toffees conceding 1.67 per game at home and Burnley shipping 2.00 per game overall, neither defence looks capable of a lockout.

Key Points:

• Everton have failed to win any of their last six home games (0-3-3 record)

• Burnley have taken points from Chelsea and Liverpool in recent away trips

• Both teams have seen BTTS land in 80% of their last ten matches

• Burnley haven't kept a clean sheet in their last ten games

• Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten

• The last meeting between these two ended 0-0 in December

Summary:

With both sides leaking goals like a sieve and neither able to keep a clean sheet, the 1.91 on Both Teams to Score looks cracking value. Everton's home woes suggest the 1.65 on a home win is skinny, while Burnley's fighting spirit on the road makes them dangerous. Expect a 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline either way, but the smart money is on both nets bulging.