Preview
Mr SimpleRight, let's have a chat about this one. Dagenham & Redbridge are at home on 24 October to face Chesham United in the National League South, and if you've been following the numbers, the case for the hosts is pretty straightforward.
Start with the home record. Across 20 home games, Dagenham & Redbridge have won 12, drawn 3 and lost 5, racking up 1.95 points per game. They've kept 11 clean sheets in those 20 and conceded just 0.8 a game. That's a solid defensive base to build on. And in their last two home fixtures, they've won 1–0 and 3–0 — not flashy, but effective.
Now look at Chesham United on the road. Their 20 away games tell a different story: 8 wins, 2 draws, 10 losses, 1.3 points per game. They've conceded 1.85 a game away and kept only 4 clean sheets in 20. That's a team that leaks goals on the road.
The head-to-head seals it for me. In the last 12 months, Dagenham have won both meetings — 3–1 at their own ground in November 2025 and 1–0 at Chesham's place in February 2026. Two wins, four goals scored, one conceded. That's a pattern.
The counter-argument? Dagenham's last game was a loss — 0–2 at Farnborough — and the one before that was a 0–0 draw at home. Their latest 10 across all venues is a modest 3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses. They're not flying. And Chesham did pick up a 4–3 win over Real Bedford three weeks ago, so they're not without a spark.
But here's the thing: Chesham's last five is 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, with 17 goals conceded and 4 of those 5 games ending without them scoring. They lost 0–5 to Forest Green on 20 October and 0–5 to Chelmsford City on 10 October. That's a team in serious trouble.
Key Points:
- Dagenham & Redbridge have won 12 of their last 20 home games, keeping 11 clean sheets
- Chesham United have lost 10 of their last 20 away games, conceding 1.85 per game
- Dagenham won both recent head-to-head meetings (3–1 and 1–0)
- Chesham failed to score in 4 of their last 5 and conceded 17 in that span
- Dagenham's last game was a loss away at Farnborough, and the one before was a 0–0 draw at home
Verdict: I'm going with the Dagenham & Redbridge home win at 1.8. The home record, the head-to-head, and Chesham's dire recent form all point the same way.
