Dalian Zhixing vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction

Hello friends! Umery Underdog here, ready to sniff out some value for our favorite overlooked teams. Today we have Dalian Zhixing hosting Chongqing Tongliang Long in the Super League. While the bookmakers have set Dalian as the favorite at 1.85, our little puppy Chongqing Tongliang Long is priced at 4.00 for an away win. Let's see if there's value in backing the underdog!

Dalian Zhixing sits 3rd in the table with 15 points from 8 games (5 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses). Their home form shows a 60% win rate, scoring 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00. However, their trends are concerning. Both goals scored and points trends are declining. Their last match was a 1-3 loss to Yunnan Yukun. They average 15.40 shots at home but only 4.20 on target, with a shot accuracy of 26.1%. They also average 6.60 corners and 12.80 fouls at home. Their possession averages 45.0% at home.

Now, let's look at our underdog, Chongqing Tongliang Long. They are in 2nd place with 18 points (5 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses). They are unbeaten! Their away form is stellar: 75% win rate in their last 4 away games. They score 1.25 goals per game away and concede a tiny 0.25 goals per game. Their defense is rock solid. In their last 10 games, they have 6 wins and 4 draws. They average 5.50 shots away, with 2.50 on target, and a high shot accuracy of 52.1%. They also average 2.50 corners and 16.50 fouls away. Their possession is lower at 29.5% away, but they are efficient.

Head-to-head history favors Chongqing. In their last meeting on 2024-10-06, Chongqing won 3-0. Overall, Chongqing has 2 wins in 4 meetings. Dalian's home record against them is 1 win and 1 draw.

The odds of 4.00 for an away win imply a 25% chance. But Chongqing's actual away win rate is 75% recently, and they are unbeaten in the league. Dalian's declining form contrasts sharply with Chongqing's stability. The finishing delta shows Chongqing is slightly overperforming (+0.21), while Dalian is underperforming (-1.33). This suggests Dalian might be lucky to have scored as many as they have, while Chongqing is efficient. The goal expectancy favors Chongqing slightly (Away 1.12 vs Home 0.82).

Key Points:

• Chongqing Tongliang Long is unbeaten (5W, 3D) and sits 2nd.

• Dalian Zhixing has declining trends in goals and points.

• Chongqing concedes only 0.25 goals per game away.

• Last H2H: Chongqing won 3-0.

• Away win odds of 4.00 offer significant value given Chongqing's 75% away win rate.

Summary: Backing the underdog Chongqing Tongliang Long to win away. The unbeaten streak and defensive solidity make the 4.00 odds a steal. Let's go with AWAY_WIN!