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Right, folks, The Big O is back and I'm eyeing this one with a bit of a grin. Dalian Zhixing host Sichuan Jiuniu in the Super League on 17 October, and I'm looking for goals, goals, goals. Life's too short for nil-nil, and I want this one to deliver.
Let's start with the home side. Dalian Zhixing are flying. They've won their last three games, scoring seven and conceding just one. That 4–0 demolition of Qingdao Youth Island on 11 October was a statement, and before that they beat Qingdao Jonoon 2–1 and Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 at home. In their last five, they've scored nine and conceded two, with three clean sheets. Over the last 10 games, they've scored 15 and conceded 10, and they've failed to score in zero of those ten. At home over 20 games, the record is 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, averaging 1.4 goals per game. That's a solid home base.
Now, the visitors. Sichuan Jiuniu are in a bit of a rut. They've drawn their last two – 2–2 with Henan Jianye at home and 1–1 away at Shandong Luneng – and before that lost 0–1 to Shanghai SIPG at home. In their last five, they've scored 6 and conceded 6, with no clean sheets. Away over 20 games, the record is 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. That's a tough away record, and it tells me the visitors are vulnerable on the road.
Here's where it gets interesting for me. The head-to-head covers just three meetings, and in all three, both teams found the net. The most recent, on 19 May 2026 at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground, was a 1–1 draw. The two older meetings (2–1 and 1–1) also saw both sides score. I'll be honest: two of those three are historical, so I'm not treating the H2H as a current trend. But the pattern is there. Sichuan Jiuniu's away record shows 11 of 20 games with both teams scoring, and in their last five, 4 of 5 have been BTTS yes. Dalian Zhixing have scored in all ten of their last games, and their home record shows 8 of 20 clean sheets, meaning 12 of 20 saw them concede.
The counter-argument? Dalian Zhixing's home record on BTTS is 9 of 20, and in their last five, only 2 of 5 saw both teams score. Their home over-2.5 record is 9 of 20, and the head-to-head has only gone over 2.5 in 1 of 3. The market is pricing both over 2.5 and BTTS yes at 1.62, implying around 62% for each, but the numbers I'm looking at don't quite back those prices. Dalian's home goal output is 1.4 per game, Sichuan's away is 0.9, and the recent form for both sides hovers around 40% for over 2.5. That's not the kind of goal feast I want to chase at those prices.
Key Points:
- Dalian Zhixing have won their last 3, scoring 7 and conceding 1
- Sichuan Jiuniu have drawn their last 2 and lost 0–1 to Shanghai SIPG at home
- Head-to-head: both teams scored in all 3 meetings (1–1, 2–1, 1–1), though 2 of 3 are historical
- Dalian Zhixing home: 9/20 over 2.5, 9/20 BTTS yes; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 10/20 over 2.5, 11/20 BTTS yes
- Dalian Zhixing have scored in all 10 of their last games; Sichuan Jiuniu have scored in 7 of 10
No Bet. The available over-market prices don't align with the goal figures I'm seeing across the home and away records and recent form, so I'm passing on this one and saving my appetite for a cleaner over opportunity.