Preview
Value VinnyDalian Zhixing arrive at this Super League fixture riding a three-game winning run, scoring seven and conceding just one across those matches. Their last five games tell a story of a side in genuine command: four wins and a draw, with 9 goals scored and only 2 conceded. At home, the numbers back that up. Across 20 home games, Dalian Zhixing have won 12, drawn 2 and lost 6, averaging 1.4 goals per game and conceding 1.1. Eight of those 20 home games ended in a clean sheet, and they have failed to score in only 4 of 20.
Sichuan Jiuniu, by contrast, travel to this fixture with a far less comfortable record on the road. Their 20 away games over the last 12 months have produced just 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses, at 0.75 points per game. They average 0.9 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game away, and have kept a clean sheet in none of those 20 matches. Nine of those 20 away games saw them fail to score at all. Their last five games overall have been one win, three draws and a loss, with their current run being two consecutive draws.
The head-to-head is limited but telling. The most recent meeting, back in May at Sichuan Jiuniu's ground, ended 1–1. Before that, the two older meetings — both now historical — saw Dalian Zhixing win 2–1 at their own ground and another 1–1 draw. Across all three meetings, Dalian Zhixing have never lost to Sichuan Jiuniu, though two of the three ended in draws. All three meetings saw both teams find the net.
The counter-argument is straightforward: the head-to-head is thin, and the most recent meeting finished level. Sichuan Jiuniu have drawn their last two games, and Dalian Zhixing's last five includes a 1–1 draw with Beijing Guoan. The 1–1 in May suggests these two can cancel each other out. That said, Dalian Zhixing's form since that meeting has been markedly better — four wins in the five games since — while Sichuan Jiuniu's away record remains a genuine concern. The bookmaker has Dalian Zhixing at 1.75, implying a 57.14% chance, and I believe that figure underprices what Dalian Zhixing have actually been producing.
Key Points:
- Dalian Zhixing have won their last three games, scoring 7 and conceding 1
- Dalian Zhixing's home record: 12 wins from 20, 8 clean sheets, 1.4 goals per game
- Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 13 losses from 20, 0 clean sheets, 1.8 goals conceded per game
- Head-to-head: Dalian Zhixing have not lost to Sichuan Jiuniu in 3 meetings, though 2 ended in draws
- The market prices Dalian Zhixing at 1.75 (57.14% implied), which I believe underprices their current form
My pick: Dalian Zhixing home win.