Alaves vs Oviedo Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this La Liga basement battle. Alaves, sitting 14th with 18 points, host Oviedo, who are rock bottom of the form table in 19th with just 11. Seven points might not sound like a canyon, but at this stage, it's a proper gap. This is a classic six-pointer for the strugglers, and the stats are shouting one thing loud and clear.

Alaves might be a bit Jekyll and Hyde, but their home form is where they get their business done. They've won three of their last five at home, including a tidy 1-0 against Sevilla and another 1-0 against Real Sociedad. They even gave Real Madrid a proper scare, losing 1-2. The pattern? At home, they're tight. They concede just 0.8 goals a game on their own patch. They're not exactly free-scoring, netting just one a game at home, but they know how to grind out a result.

Now, let's talk about Oviedo. Blimey, they can't buy a win. No wins in their last ten. None. Zip. Nada. They've drawn six of those, mind you, so they're the kings of the single point. But look at their away day blues: they've lost three of their last five on the road, shipping four at Sevilla and two at Atletico. They've scored a grand total of zero goals in their last three away trips. Zero. Their attack away from home has gone on holiday.

The head-to-head is a small sample, but it favours the hosts. Alaves are unbeaten at home against Oviedo, winning 2-1 the last time they met here.

When you crunch the numbers, it's simple. Alaves average 1.6 goals a game overall; Oviedo manage a measly 0.5. Oviedo's keeper is the busiest man in Spain, making nearly five saves a game on average because his defence lets so many shots through. Alaves at home average over five corners a game – they'll be putting the pressure on.

The bookies have Alaves at 1.83 to win. That implies they think Alaves have about a 55% chance. I reckon they're being a bit generous to the visitors. Given Oviedo's inability to win and their goal drought on the road, I'd make Alaves closer to a 65% shot here. That's what we call value, my friends.

Key Points:

Alaves have won 60% of their last five home games.

Oviedo are winless in ten, drawing six.

Oviedo have failed to score in their last three away matches.

Alaves have kept clean sheets in 40% of their last ten games.

• The head-to-head at this ground reads: Alaves unbeaten (1 win, 1 draw).

Sometimes football betting isn't about overcomplicating things. It's about spotting the obvious mismatch. Alaves are stronger at home, Oviedo are woeful on the road and can't score. All signs point to a home win. The price is right, so let's get on it.