De Graafschap vs Jong Utrecht Prediction

Look, I'll be upfront with you - this one's got me scratching my head a bit, but let's break it down properly, boet.

De Graafschap have done the business against Jong Utrecht in both of their recent meetings. They won 1–0 at home in February and then went to Utrecht's ground in December and came back with a 3–2 win. That's two wins in a row, and the one at this venue was a clean sheet. Now look at the home record: 8 wins, 2 draws, 10 losses in 20 home games, scoring 2 per game and never failing to score in any of those 20. Jong Utrecht's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses, scoring 1.3 per game. The numbers at this ground tell you De Graafschap are the side to back, and the head-to-head backs that up nicely.

But here's where it gets tricky, and I don't like to sugarcoat it. De Graafschap's last 10 games are 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses. They got thumped 0–5 at Heracles five weeks ago and lost 1–2 at home to NAC Breda two weeks ago - and that one came with a red card in the 63rd minute. Their last five is 2W 1D 2L, which is the same as Jong Utrecht's last five. Both sides are sitting at 1.4 points per game over their last five. Jong Utrecht scored 11 goals in their last five (2.2 per game), which is more than De Graafschap's 6. And De Graafschap's home record, while solid, still includes 10 losses in 20 games.

The goal markets are interesting too. De Graafschap's home games have gone over 2.5 in 16 of 20, and both teams' last five have been over 2.5 in 4 of 5. But the price at 1.31 is asking you to be really sure, and I'm not there. Same with both teams to score - 15 of 20 at home for De Graafschap, 13 of 20 away for Jong Utrecht, and in the two recent head-to-head meetings both sides found the net in one but not the other. But that 1–0 in February at this very ground reminds you it's not a given.

Key Points:

• De Graafschap won both recent head-to-head meetings, including a 1–0 at this ground in February

• De Graafschap's home record: 8W 2D 10L, 2 goals per game, never failed to score in 20 home games

• Jong Utrecht's away record: 5W 5D 10L, 1.3 goals per game

• Both teams' last five: 2W 1D 2L, 1.4 points per game

• De Graafschap's last 10: 2W 2D 6L, including a 0–5 defeat at Heracles

The football points to De Graafschap being the stronger side at home, and the head-to-head agrees, but the recent form is too mixed for me to put money on it at the available price. No Bet.