Derby vs Sheffield Wednesday Prediction

Alright, gather round! We’ve got a Championship clash on Saturday afternoon as Derby County welcome Sheffield Wednesday to town. Now, on paper, this looks like a home banker, but as we all know, this league loves a curveball – though I’m not sure Wednesday could hit one right now if they tried!

Let’s start with the hosts. Derby are sitting in 8th spot, just six points off the playoffs with a game in hand on some of the sides above them. They’ve taken 16 points from their last 10 games, including a thumping 5-0 win at Bristol City and a solid 3-1 victory over Blackburn last time out. But they’ve also shipped four at Hull and got nilled by Watford, so while they’re finding the net, they’re not exactly Fort Knox at the back.

Now, the visitors. Blimey, where do we start? Sheffield Wednesday are rock bottom of the pile with minus seven points to their name. They’ve lost their last TEN games on the bounce. Read that again. Ten. Straight. Losses. They’ve scored just three goals in those ten matches – that’s 0.3 per game – and conceded 20. Away from home, it’s even worse: 0.2 goals scored per game, 2.2 conceded. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of those ten, and they’ve failed to score in seven of them. It’s grim.

The history books show Derby haven’t actually beaten Wednesday at home in this fixture recently (0 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss in the last four), and the reverse fixture back in December ended 3-0. But that was then, and this is now. Wednesday were struggling then, and they’re absolutely on the canvas now.

Looking at the numbers, Derby are creating chances (nearly 12 shots per game) while Wednesday are managing less than 6, with only 1.4 on target. The market has Derby at 1.25 to win, which is skinny – no value there even with Wednesday’s woes. The overs look tempting at 1.73, but with Wednesday’s attack being about as threatening as a wet paper bag, I’m looking elsewhere.

Key Points:

• Sheffield Wednesday have lost their last 10 matches, scoring just 3 goals (0.3 per game) and conceding 20

• Wednesday have failed to score in 7 of their last 10 games, managing only 0.2 goals per game away from home

• Derby have won 5 of their last 10, including a 5-0 thrashing of Bristol City and 3-1 win over Blackburn

• The hosts have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 10, while Wednesday have kept none

• Both Teams to Score 'No' is priced at 1.57, offering value given Wednesday's scoring struggles

The Verdict:

I’m not interested in the 1.25 for a Derby win – you’d need to combine it with something else for any decent return. Instead, the value lies in Wednesday’s inability to find the back of the net. They’ve drawn blanks in 70% of their last ten games, and against a Derby side that’s decent enough at home, I can’t see them breaking their duck here. Both Teams to Score – No at 1.57 is the play. It’s not glamorous, but it’s smart.