Preview
Stoke City have been the little puppies of the Championship over recent weeks, and they're about to visit Derby's ground on 17 October with some serious momentum in their pockets.
The case for the visitors is built on recent form, and it's hard to ignore. Stoke City have won three of their last five matches, drawing one and losing one, for 2 points per game. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've collected 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, scoring 17 goals at 1.7 per game. In their last five matches, they've scored in every single one, and their last three away trips have produced two wins and a draw — a 2–1 at Bolton on 10 October and a 2–1 at Watford on 12 September. That's a team that's scoring, moving, and finding a way to get results on the road.
Derby, by contrast, have been struggling. Their last five matches have produced no wins — two draws and three losses — with just 3 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home specifically, their last three games have been a 1–1 draw with Wrexham on 10 October, a 1–2 loss to Birmingham on 12 September, and a 0–1 defeat to West Brom on 9 September. Over their last 10 games in all, they've managed just 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
The counter-argument, and it's a fair one, is that Derby's home record over 20 games tells a different story. They've won 7 of those 20, drawn 4 and lost 9, averaging 1.25 points per game and 1.2 goals scored. Stoke City's away record over 20 games is 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses, with just 0.7 goals scored per game and 1.6 conceded. And the most recent head-to-head meeting at this ground, on 6 April, saw Derby win 2–0. The older meetings at this venue — a 0–0 draw and a 3–0 Derby win — are historical record, but that recent 2–0 is the one that carries the most weight.
So you've got a team in poor recent form but a solid 20-game home record, facing a team in excellent recent form but a poor 20-game away record. The head-to-head at this ground favours Derby, but the form swing in recent weeks is significant. Stoke have found a way to score in every one of their last five and keep it going on the road. The market prices Derby as the slight favourite at 2.62, but I think the little puppies have enough to get over the line here.
Key Points:
- Stoke City have won 3 of their last 5 and scored in all 5, with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 away games
- Derby have won 0 of their last 5, with just 3 goals scored and 8 conceded
- Derby's 20-game home record (7W 4D 9L) is stronger than Stoke City's 20-game away record (4W 4D 12L)
- The recent head-to-head at Derby's ground was a 2–0 Derby win on 6 April
- Stoke City's last 10: 5W 2D 3L, 1.7 goals per game; Derby's last 10: 1W 3D 6L, 0.9 goals per game
I'm backing the little puppies — Stoke City away win at 2.8.
