Desenzano Calvina vs Dolomiti Bellunesi Prediction

Right, so we've got Desenzano Calvina hosting Dolomiti Bellunesi on 10 October in Serie C Girone A, and if you've got a fancy for this one, the numbers are pointing one way pretty clearly.

Let's start with the home side. Desenzano Calvina have a proper solid record at home — 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses across their last 20 home games, which gives them 1.8 points per game. They score 1.5 a game at home and concede just 0.8, and they've kept 9 clean sheets in those 20. That's a team that shuts the door when it's on their patch. In their last five matches they've picked up 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and they came away with a 2–1 win at Folgore Caratese just seven days before this one. So they're in the thick of it, and the last game was a win.

Now flip it around and look at Dolomiti Bellunesi on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses — 1.1 points per game. They score 1.1 a game away but concede 1.7, and they've only managed 3 clean sheets in 20 trips. That's a team that gets picked apart on the road. And in their last five matches? Zero wins. Three draws and two losses, including a 1–2 defeat to Novara at home just six days ago. They're not winning, and they're not scoring enough to keep it level.

The counter-argument, and I'll be fair — Desenzano Calvina have had a couple of quiet games. Two of their last five were 0–0 draws (at home to Juventus U23 and away at Treviso), and they lost 1–3 to Lecco at home three weeks ago. Their scoring over the last 10 games is just 0.7 a game, which isn't the most exciting stuff. And there's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we can't lean on history. That said, the home record is the record, and 10 wins in 20 home games is a statement.

The market has Desenzano Calvina winning at 2.2, which prices them at about 45%. I'd put their chance a touch higher than that, closer to 53%, given the gulf in the home-versus-away numbers and the fact that the visitors haven't won in five. The price is doing the work for you here.

Key Points:

• Desenzano Calvina: 10W 6D 4L in 20 home games, 1.8 ppg, 0.8 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets

• Dolomiti Bellunesi: 5W 7D 8L in 20 away games, 1.1 ppg, 1.7 conceded per game, 3 clean sheets

• Dolomiti Bellunesi are winless in their last 5 matches (0W 3D 2L)

• Desenzano Calvina won their last game 2–1 at Folgore Caratese seven days ago

• No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides

My pick: home win for Desenzano Calvina at 2.2.