KV Mechelen vs Zulte Waregem Prediction

Alright, footy fans! Saturday afternoon in Belgium and we've got a proper Jupiler Pro League clash lined up as fifth-placed KV Mechelen host a Zulte Waregem side that's been absolutely lost on the road.

Now, let's keep it simple, yeah? Mechelen are sitting pretty in fifth with 39 points from 26 games, and their recent form suggests they're warming up nicely for the run-in. They've won four of their last ten, including a cracking 2-0 victory away at RAAL La Louvière last weekend and a solid 2-0 home win against Antwerp earlier in February. That's the kind of form that breeds confidence, especially when you're playing at your own gaff.

Zulte Waregem, on the other hand, are in all sorts of bother. Twelfth in the table with just 29 points, and their last ten games make for grim reading – seven defeats, only two wins. But here's the kicker, and it's a big one: their away form is absolutely shocking. We're talking about a side that's lost all five of their last away games. Not drawn, not squeaked a win – lost the lot. One hundred percent failure rate on their travels recently, shipping nearly three goals a game (2.80 if you're counting).

The head-to-head makes even better reading for the home faithful. Mechelen haven't lost to Zulte at home in recent memory – two wins and two draws in the last four hosting this lot. The last time they met back in July, it finished 1-1, but that was on Zulte's patch. Up in Mechelen, it's a different story entirely.

The maths is straightforward here. Mechelen are scoring 1.60 goals per game at home and conceding just 1.20. Zulte are conceding 2.80 away and while they do score 1.60 on the road, given they've lost five on the bounce away from home, those goals aren't doing them much good, are they?

The bookies are offering 2.15 on a home win, which looks generous to me. When you've got a side in the top five with solid home form against a team that's forgotten how to win away, that's value, plain and simple.

Key Points:

• Zulte Waregem have lost their last 5 away games in a row (100% loss rate)

• KV Mechelen are unbeaten in their last 4 home meetings with Zulte (2 wins, 2 draws)

• Mechelen have won 4 of their last 10 matches, including victories over Antwerp and RAAL La Louvière

• Zulte have lost 7 of their last 10 matches overall

• Mechelen averaging 1.60 goals per game at home vs Zulte's 2.80 conceded away

Summary:

It's a home win for me. Zulte's away day blues are too deep to ignore, and Mechelen have the momentum and the head-to-head record to get the job done. At 2.15, there's proper value in backing the boys from Mechelen to take all three points.