Preview
Mr CertaintyThe strongest case in this Ligue 2 fixture is for both teams to score. Dijon have found the net in all five of their recent matches, including a 3–2 home win over Laval on 11 September and a 2–2 draw with Estac Troyes on 2 October. Across their 20 home games over the last 12 months, Dijon have failed to score in only 5 of those 20, and both teams have scored in 12 of the 20. Metz, for their part, have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and in 12 of their 20 away games over the same 12-month window. In the latest 10 games for both sides, both teams have scored in 8 of 10. The pattern is consistent: Dijon's attack at home and Metz's attack on the road both find the net regularly, and the combination of those two records makes a blank sheet from either side the less likely outcome.
The counter-argument is that Metz's away record is poor — 2 wins, 6 draws and 12 losses in 20 away games over 12 months, with just 0.6 points per game. They have also failed to score in 8 of those 20 away outings, which could suggest they struggle to create on the road. Additionally, the head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings within the last 12 months, so there is no recent pattern to lean on. The most recent meeting at Dijon's ground was a 0–0 draw in February 2023, and the one before that at Metz's ground ended 1–2 in August 2022. Without a current head-to-head rhythm, the venue records and recent form must carry the weight.
Key Points:
- Dijon have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches and in 15 of 20 home games over 12 months
- Metz have scored in 4 of 5 recent matches and in 12 of 20 away games over 12 months
- Both teams' latest 10 games show both-teams-to-score yes in 8 of 10
- Metz's away record is weak (2W 6D 12L in 20 games), but they still score in 12 of those 20
- The head-to-head is entirely historical with no meetings in the last 12 months
The evidence consistently points to both Dijon and Metz finding the net, and I recommend both teams to score at 1.57.