Preview
Right, so we've got Dijon hosting Rodez in Ligue 2 on 24 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got a clear shape to it.
Dijon at home are a force. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 12, drawn 4 and lost just 4, racking up 47 goals at 2.35 a game while keeping it to 25 conceded. That's a solid record, and it's backed up by their recent form: three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, scoring 2.6 a game. They hammered Metz 4–2 at home on 12 October and beat Laval 3–2 on 11 September. Yes, they dropped a 4–2 game at Reims on 16 October, but that's one blemish in an otherwise strong run.
Now look at Rodez. They've lost their last two — a 0–3 home defeat to Montpellier on 19 October and a 0–2 loss at Saint Etienne on 10 October — and scored nothing in either. In their last five games, they've managed just one win (a 2–0 friendly against Inter Club d'Escaldes), no draws and four losses, scoring only 5 goals and conceding 10. That's 0.6 points a game, and they've failed to score in three of those five. The current run has them down two straight, scoreless, with 5 conceded.
The head-to-head here is entirely historical — the last meeting was back in April 2023, so there's no recent pattern to lean on. What we do know is that at Dijon's ground in those older meetings, Dijon won 1–0 and drew 1–1, so the home side has a historical edge at this venue.
The counter-argument? Dijon did lose at Reims just eight days ago, and Rodez's away record over 20 games is actually respectable — 8 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses. They're not a team that folds on the road historically. And Dijon's defence has been leaky recently, conceding 11 in their last five. So Rodez aren't walking into a team that's impenetrable, and a draw or an upset isn't out of the question.
Key Points:
- Dijon's home record: 12W 4D 4L in 20 games, 2.35 goals scored per game
- Rodez's last two: lost both, scored 0, conceded 5
- Dijon's last five: 3W 1D 1L, both teams scored in all 5, over 2.5 in all 5
- Rodez's last five: 1W 0D 4L, failed to score in 3 of 5
- Head-to-head is 3+ years old; at Dijon's ground historically, Dijon 1W 1D 0L
Dijon home win at 2.09 is the pick. The market prices it at 47.85%, but the form gap between a Dijon side scoring 2.6 a game and a Rodez side that's gone scoreless in its last two outings points to a higher chance than the bookies are giving.
