Doncaster vs Northampton Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One scrap between Doncaster and Northampton. The lads from Donny are sitting pretty in 10th with 17 points, while Northampton are lingering down in 14th on 14 points. Not much between 'em on paper, but dig into the numbers and a proper story emerges.

Doncaster have been decent at home, winning 60% of their matches on their own patch. They're averaging 1.6 goals per game at home and keeping things relatively tight at the back. Their recent form shows they can mix it with the best - they battered Bradford 3-1 and put three past Grimsby in the EFL Trophy. Mind you, they've had a couple of wobbles too, losing to Luton and getting turned over by AFC Wimbledon at home.

But here's the killer stat for me: Northampton can't buy a goal away from home. We're talking just 0.25 goals per game on their travels! That's absolutely shocking, mate. They've managed one goal in their last four away matches combined. One! They're solid defensively with a 60% clean sheet rate, but you can't win games if you don't score, can you?

The head-to-head is pretty even, but Doncaster have the slight edge overall. When you factor in that Northampton are coming off a loss to Rotherham and have had less time to recover (7 days vs Doncaster's 11), the picture gets even clearer.

Both teams like to keep things tight - Doncaster average 1.4 goals scored and 0.9 conceded, while Northampton are even more defensive with 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. This ain't gonna be a goal fest, but I fancy Doncaster to nick it.

The bookies have Doncaster at 1.80, which looks proper value given their home form and Northampton's away scoring woes. Sometimes the simplest bet is the best bet, and this one's straightforward - home win.