Preview
Right, so we've got Doncaster hosting Sheffield Wednesday on 24 October, and if I'm being honest, the Rams look like the team to back here.
Let's start with what's been happening. Sheffield Wednesday have been absolutely flying over the last ten games — six wins, three draws, one loss. They've scored 22 goals in that stretch, which is 2.2 a game, and only conceded nine. That 5-0 hammering of AFC Wimbledon at home on 17 October showed just how much they've got in the tank. Before that, they drew 2-2 at Huddersfield and beat Salford City 2-1 away. The one blemish was the 0-2 loss at Notts County on 20 October, but that was with a red card in the 50th minute, so they were down to ten men for the last forty. One bad day doesn't erase a run like that.
Doncaster, on the other hand, have lost their last two — 0-2 to Stockport County at home and 1-2 at Leicester. Before that, they'd won three in a row, so it's not like they're in freefall, but the last two games have been ugly. They've only scored one goal in those two losses and conceded four. Their xG numbers back up the struggle: they've been generating just 0.52 expected goals per game over the last four games with data, while Sheffield Wednesday are sitting on 2.21. That's a massive gap in creative output.
Now, the head-to-head here is ancient — the last time these two met was a friendly back in July 2023, and the earlier meetings go back to 2013. So there's no real pattern to lean on. What we do have is the home and away records over 20 games each. Doncaster at home: 6 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses, scoring 0.85 a game and conceding 1.45. Sheffield Wednesday away: 4 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses, scoring 0.7 a game and conceding 1.75. Looking at the numbers, Doncaster's home record looks a touch better, but the last ten all-venues numbers tell a very different story — Sheffield Wednesday at 2.1 points per game versus Doncaster at 1.1.
The counter-argument is simple: Sheffield Wednesday's away record is poor, and they just lost to Notts County. Doncaster won their previous two home games (1-0 Burton, 1-0 Liverpool U21) and the Rams might be overcooked after that Notts County defeat. But a red card is a red card — it's not a form issue. And Doncaster's defence has been leaking, conceding 1.45 per game at home over 20 games.
Key Points:
- Sheffield Wednesday: 6W 3D 1L in their last 10, scoring 2.2 per game
- Doncaster: lost their last two, scoring just 1 goal and conceding 4
- xG gap: Sheffield Wednesday 2.21 per game vs Doncaster 0.52
- H2H is historical only — no meetings within the last 12 months
- Sheffield Wednesday's Notts County loss came with a 50th-minute red card
My pick: Sheffield Wednesday away win at 2.55.
